上海市入境旅游市场发展潜力与旅游外汇收入的关系研究——基于灰色预测和灰色关联分析法

利用灰色预测法对上海市入境旅游11个国家和地区的赴沪旅游者人数和旅游外汇收入进行了预测,推断出上海市入境旅游市场中不同国家和地区的市场潜力;运用灰色关联分析法,探索不同市场潜力等级的入境旅游国家和地区与上海市旅游外汇收入间的关系.针对亚洲和欧美各国家或地区的实际情况,提出了针对性的对策和建议.

Study on Relation of Inbound Tourism Market Development Potential and Foreign Exchange Earnings from Tourism in Shanghai——Based on Grey Prediction and Gray Relative Analysis Method

This paper predicted the number of tourists in Shanghai from eleven countries and regions of inbound tourism as well as Shanghai for- eign exchange earnings from tourism in particular years. This paper also made a deduction of market potential of different countries and regions in Shanghai inbound tourism market. On this basis, the gray relative analysis method was used to explore the grey relational degree between the level of different market potential and Shanghai foreign exchange earnings from tourism. Finally, this paper put forward the countermeasures and suggestions in view of the actual situation of countries and regions in Asia and Occident.