| 旅游上市公司财务危机的突变级数预测模型及实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张一妹,张红,张春晖.旅游上市公司财务危机的突变级数预测模型及实证研究[J].资源开发与市场,2011,27(8). |
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| 作者姓名： | 张一妹 张红 张春晖 |
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| 作者单位： | 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西西安,710062 |
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| 基金项目： | 教育部人文社科规划基金项目(编号:10YJA790243); 陕西师范大学研究生培养创新基金(编号:2010CXS029) |
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| 摘 要： | 旅游企业因财务风险导致的经营陷入困境甚至破产清算现象不断增加。为了提供预防企业陷入财务困境的有效措施,基于突变级数法,以2000—2009年沪深两市首次被特别处理的A股旅游上市公司为研究对象,从经营能力和发展能力等方面选取核心财务指标,构建财务预测模型,运用亏损前一年(ST-3)的数据算出预警阀值,以亏损当年(ST-2)数据进行检验。讨论了财务危机发生的原因,通过ST公司与正常公司均值比较得出以下结论:旅游企业陷入财务危机的根源是经营能力不足、现金流量发展水平较低,从而影响了偿债能力、盈利能力和成长能力。
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| 关 键 词： | 旅游上市公司 财务危机 突变级数 |
Financial Crisis Mutations Series Prediction Model and Empirical Research on Listed Tourism Companies |
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| ZHANG Yi-mei,ZHANG Hong,ZHANG Chun-hui.Financial Crisis Mutations Series Prediction Model and Empirical Research on Listed Tourism Companies[J].Resource Development & Market,2011,27(8). |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Yi-mei ZHANG Hong ZHANG Chun-hui |
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| Abstract: | Currently,the fierce competition between the tourism enterprises increased.Enterprises in distress,or even in bankruptcy liquidation as a result of financial risk were in increasing.In order to strengthen the risk control of enterprise operating process,provided the effective measures of preventive enterprise into financial crisis,based on the mutation series method,the authors chose the A-share listed tourism companies being special treatment for the first time in 2000-2009 as the research object,selected ... |
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| Keywords: | listed tourism companies financial distress catastrophe progression |
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