| 城镇建设用地需求预测与配置研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱明仓,杨韬.城镇建设用地需求预测与配置研究[J].资源开发与市场,2007,23(1):10-12. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱明仓 杨韬 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 西南财经大学,经济学院,四川,成都,610074;四川省国土资源厅信息中心,四川,成都,610072
2. 四川省国土资源厅信息中心,四川,成都,610072 |
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| 基金项目： | 国土资源部首批百名优秀青年科技人才计划;四川省科技厅资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 针对我国现行城镇建设用地预测方法存在的问题，对城镇建设用地预测方法进行了探索性研究；通过构建科学的建设用地需求预测方法，为土地利用规划提供科学依据。在C—D生产函数的基础上，提出了土地、资本与产出GDP的要素关系模型、恩格尔系数与人均建设用地面积关系模型和时间序列的ARIMA建设用地模型。对成都市城镇建设用地总量进行了实证分析，对4种预测方法的结果进行了定量评价，并据此提出成都市建设用地的配置方案。
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| 关 键 词： | 建设用地 生产函数 ARIMA模型 土地规划 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-8141(2007)01-0010-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-11-20 |
Study on Prediction of Urban Building Land Demand and Allocation |
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| ZHU Ming-cang,YANG Tao.Study on Prediction of Urban Building Land Demand and Allocation[J].Resource Development & Market,2007,23(1):10-12. |
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| Authors: | ZHU Ming-cang YANG Tao |
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| Institution: | 1 .School of Economies, South Western University of Finance and Economies, Chengdu 610074, China; 2. Information Center, Land and Resources Department of Siehuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China |
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| Abstract: | Aiming at the problem in the actual predication methods on urban building land, an exploratory research was carried out on these methods. This paper provided a scientific evidence to land use planning on the basis of reasonable methods of predicating urban building land demand. Based on Cobb-douglas Production Function, innovated a relational model comprises urban building land, capital,and GDP. There was a negative correlation between Engel coefficient and per capita urban building land space through theory analysis. This paper set up a predication model on this foundation,and an ARIMA model based on urban building land demand. In view of the above, the authors formulated a combination allocation plan on urban building land in Chengdu city. |
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| Keywords: | urban building land production function ARIMA model land use planning |
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