基于STIRPAT模型的碳排放驱动因子研究——以黑龙江省为例

定量分析碳排放驱动因素,对优化能源结构、调整产业结构、推进技术进步、发展低碳经济具有重要的理论和现实意义.利用碳排放估算模型,测算了黑龙江省1995-2012年能源消费的碳排放量.基于扩展的STIRPAT模型,实证研究了各驱动因子对碳排放总量的影响及其驱动程度.结果表明,能源结构、经济发展水平、城市化率、人口总量对碳排放量有正向驱动作用,而产业结构、能源强度对碳排放总量的增加具有抑制作用,提出有效促进能源消费结构优化、加大产业结构调整、大力推进技术创新是实现黑龙江省低碳经济发展的有效路径.

Driving Factors Analysis of Carbon Emissions Based on STIRPAT Model——A Case Study of Heilongjiang Province

Quantitative analysis of the driving factors of carbon emissions could help optimize the energy structure, adjust industrial structure and develop the low carbon economy, which had great theoretical and realistic significance. This paper calculated the quantity of carbon emission of Heilongjiang Province based the quantity of energy consumption from 1995 to 2012 by the formula of carbon emission. Based on the STIRPAT model, this paper studied the effect of the driving factor on the carbon emission. The results showed that the elastic coefficient of driving factor such as energy structure, GDP, urban development, population which had the positive driving effect for carbon emissions. The elastic coefficient of driving factor such as industrial structure, the unit GDP energy consumption had negative driving effect. Energy consumption structure optimization, and increasing the efforts on industrial structure adjustment, technology innovation were the feasible path to establish low carbon economy and society in Heilongjiang Province.