| 基于灰色神经网络的能源消费组合预测模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 付加锋,蔡国田,张雷.基于灰色神经网络的能源消费组合预测模型[J].资源开发与市场,2006,22(3):216-219. |
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| 作者姓名： | 付加锋 蔡国田 张雷 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100049
2. 中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京,100101 |
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| 摘 要： | 组合预测对于信息不完备的复杂经济系统具有一定的实用性。鉴于能源消费系统的复杂性和非线性特征，利用我国能源消费的历史数据，采用灰色预测的GM（1，1）、无偏GM（1，1）和pGM（1，1）3种模型与人工神经网络进行优化组合，建立了灰色神经网络的能源消费组合预测模型，实证分析结果获得了更为精确的预测效果，可以作为能源消费预测的有效工具。同时，能源消费的预测结果也表明今后必须以节能为主导思想，努力建设资源节约型社会和环境友好型社会。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色神经网络 能源消费 组合预测模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1005-8141(2006)03-0216-04 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-04-18 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-05-19 |
Combination Forecasting Model of Energy Consumption Based on Gray Model and Neural Network |
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| FU Jia-feng,CAI Guo-tian,ZHANG Lei.Combination Forecasting Model of Energy Consumption Based on Gray Model and Neural Network[J].Resource Development & Market,2006,22(3):216-219. |
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| Authors: | FU Jia-feng CAI Guo-tian ZHANG Lei |
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| Institution: | 1.Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Beijing 100101; 2. Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100049 |
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| Abstract: | Combination forecasting model were practicable in complex economic system with uncompleted information.Because energy consumption system was of complexity and non-linearity,this paper combined neural network and three models of GM(1,1),WPGM(1,1),pGM(1,1) with energy consumption data,and proposed the combination forecasting model of energy consumption.The result showed that this model could gain optimized forecasting value and could be taken as an effective tool to predict future energy consumption.Meanwhile,the forecasting value implied that it was strongly essential to construct resource-saving and environment-friendly society in terms of energy-saving. |
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| Keywords: | gray neural network energy consumption combination forecasting model |
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