安徽省土地资源人口承载力的动态研究

基于《安徽省统计年鉴》，对全省近10年的土地资源、粮食生产及人口增长状况进行了分析。在此基础上，运用相关数学模型对2005-2020年全省人口数量、耕地面积和粮食单产分别进行了预测。为了提高预测精确度，取各种预测方法的平均值。根据安徽省情将其划分为温饱型、小康型和富裕型三档生活标准，分别探讨了预测期内安徽省土地承载力状况，提出了相应的发展对策和建议，为全省发展粮食生产提供科学依据。

Study on Population Supporting Capacity of Land Resources in Anhui Province

The authors analyzed the land resource,the grain production and the population growth in Anhui Province which was according to the date coming from Anhui Province Stat Annual.Basing on the result and using mathematics model forecasted the population,the area of cultivated-land and the fluctuations of grain per unit yield in 2005 to 2020.For the sake of improving the accuracy,took the average value.According to the circs in Anhui Province carved up the consumption levels: saturated,comparatively well-off and surplus.Using this three consumption levels discussed the population supporting capacity of land resources in Anhui Province,put up the corresponding development countermeasure based on this result and suggestion.The results provided with scientific theoretical basis for the grain production.