我国经济发展的生态效率及其改进策略

本文考察了我国历年生态效率状况，应用两种预测方法探讨了至2020年我国经济发展的生态效率预期目标，并从宏观角度提出了系统性的改进策略。研究表明，1997～2005年，我国水资源生产率、工业用水资源生产率、能源生产率、COD排放生产率、SO2排放生产率的年平均增长率分别为8．77％、7．19％、2．56％、11．94％、7．35％。根据“十一五”规划，至2010年，我国拟采用的水资源生产率倍数、工业用水资源生产率倍数、能源生产率倍数、COD排放生产率倍数、SO2排放生产率倍数分别为1．924、2．081、1．223、2．570、1．969，与根据我国历年变化趋势所预测的相应值基本持平，有的甚至还相对低一些；按“十一五”规划期生态效率增长趋势所推测的2020年上述值分别为3．006、4．247、1．912、6．540、5．009，根据我国历年变化趋势所预测的相应值分别为5．37、4．01、1．66、9．54、4．13。我国生态效率改进的基本策略是：技术进步、结构调整、制度创新和强化管理等。

Eco-efficiency of Economic Development in China and Strategies for Eco-efficiency Improvement

In this paper, the state of eco-efficiency over the years was inspected. The expected target of eco-efficiency for economic development in China by 2020 was discussed by two methods. Finally, Strategies for eeo-efficieney improvement were put forward maeroscopically. The study showed that, the average annual growth rate of water resource productivity, industrial water resource productivity, energy productivity, COD discharge productivity and SO2 discharge productivity were 8.77%, 7. 19%, 2. 56%, 11.94% and 7.35% respectively in China from 1997 to 2005. By 2010, according to the llth Five-year Plan, the index to be adopted in China such as water resource productivity times, industrial water resource productivity times, energy productivity times, COD discharge productivity times and SO2 discharge productivity times will be 1.924, 2.081, 1. 223, 2. 570 and 1. 969 respectively, which are close to or lower than the corresponding values predicted according to the trend over the years. By 2020, according to the trend during the 11 th Five-year Plan period, the values of the index mentioned above Will be 3. 006, 4. 247, 1. 912, 6. 540 and 5. 009 respectively. That predicted according to the trend over the years will be 5.37, 4.01, 1.66, 9.54 and 4. 13 respectively. The basic strategies for eco-efficiency improvement are technological advancement, structural readjustment, institutional innovation, strengthening management and so on.