城市居民交通方式选择及其影响因素分析——以南京市为例

随着我国城市化水平的提高,城市交通能源消费占总能源消费的比重逐渐增大,交通方式选择及其影响因素研究引起广泛关注。本研究通过调查南京居民出行交通方式,并通过多项logit模型(multinomial logit model),探究影响居民交通选择的关键因素,为城市交通政策的制定提供科学依据,并根据估算结果分析不同政策下交通方式改变带来的节能减排效应。结果显示:出行特性(如出行距离)、出行者的个人特征(如性别、年龄、职业)与出行者的家庭特征(如是否有私家车,是否有小孩)都对交通方式选择有显著影响。如果通过有效的交通政策引导,使私家车出行转变为轨道交通出行,南京每天大约可减少1573.5吨碳排放。

Traffic Alternatives for Urban Residents and Affecting Factors A Case Study of Nanjing City

With the progress of urbanization in China, the proportion of energy consumption of urban traffic accounting for total energy consumption increases gradually. The traffic ahematives and their affecting factors are concerned widely. In this study, the traffic styles of the residents in Nanjing City were investigated and analyzed using multinomial logit model to study the key factor affecting the traffic choice for policy making of urban traffic. Additionally according to different estimated results, the effects of energy conservation and emission reduction at different policies were analyzed. The result showed that the factors such as distance to go, personality （including gender, age and occupation） and family situation （including possessing private cars or not and having children or not） affected the traffic style significantly. If some effect traffic policies change the traffic style of residents from driving car to take rail transportation, the carbon emission could be reduced by 1573. 5 tons per day in Nanjing City.