1960~2019年静海高温天气变化特征分析及日高温概率模型

利用静海国家气象站1960~2019年日最高气温资料对静海高温天气发生的开始和结束时间、次数进行了统计,分析了持续高温天气过程的年际变化规律、时间演变特征,利用Mann-Kendall法对高温日数、年最高气温进行趋势检验;构建了日高温发生概率的“钟形”曲线模型,利用傅里叶变换分析日高温发生概率序列的主要分量,构建了基于傅里叶级数的日高温发生概率简化模型。结果表明:1960年至1996年静海年高温日数呈下降趋势,1997年开始年高温日数呈上升趋势,而年最高气温无显著的上升趋势;静海高温天气过程主要为持续1~2天的过程,近20年高温热浪发生次数明显增加;近60年高温日开始时间提前,结束时间推迟的趋势明显;模型较好的模拟了日高温发生概率的变化特征。

Analysis on the Characteristics of High Temperature Weather in Jinghai from 1960 to 2019 and the Probability Model of Daily High Temperature

Based on the daily maximum temperature data of Jinghai national meteorological station from 1960 to 2019,the beginning and ending time and frequency of high temperature weather in Jinghai were studied,and the interannual change law and time evolution characteristics of continuous high temperature weather process were analyzed.The mann-kendall method was used to test the trend of high temperature days and the annual maximum temperature.The "bell curve"model of daily high temperature occurrence probability was constructed,the main components of daily high temperature occurrence probability series were analyzed by Fourier transform,and the simplified model of daily high temperature occurrence probability based on Fourier series was constructed.The mean square error of the model is minimized by Levenberg Marquardt algorithm.The results showed that the number of high temperature days in Jinghai has a downward trend from 1960 to 1996,and has an increasing trend since 1997,while the annual maximum temperature has no significant increasing trend.The process of high temperature in Jinghai mainly lasts for 1-2 days,and the frequency of high temperature and heat wave has increased significantly in recent 20 years.In recent 60 years,the beginning time of high temperature days was earlier and the end time was earlier.The model well simulates the changing characteristics of occurrence probability of daily high temperature.