基于人工神经网络模型预测2017~2018年成都市危险废物增量研究

危险废物对环境或者人体健康会造成有害影响,有效地预测其产量是优化管理和合理处置的重要依据。以2008~2016年成都市危险废物产生量为基础,通过数据带入和整合及综合各参数因子的影响,利用人工神经网络模型预测方法客观反映并预测成都市危废产量的变化趋势。结果表明该模型预测2017~2018年成都市危险废物年产量分别达到24.46万t和26.88万t,模拟精度偏差低。因此,人工神经网络模型可以作为一种预测危险废物产生量的工具,其预测结果可以为职能部门提供决策参考。

Study on Prediction of Hazardous Waste Increment in Chengdu From 2017 to 2018 Based on Artificial Neural Network Model

Hazardous wastes may have harmful effects on the environment and human health,it is an important basis to effectively predict the yield of hazardous waste for optimizing the management and rational disposal.Based on the quantity of hazardous waste in Chengdu from 2008~2016,this paper objectively reflected and predictd the variation trend of hazardous waste production in Chengdu by using artificial neural network model prediction method through data integration and the influence of various parameters.,the results showed that the predicted quantity of hazardous waste could reach 0.24 and 0.26 million tons per year by 2017 and 2018,respectively,with low accuracy deviation.Therefore,the artificial neural network model can be used as a tool to predict the quantity of hazardous waste generation,and the prediction results can provide a helpful reference for decision-making by the functional departments.