|
|||||
|
|
Forecasting the outbreak of moorland wildfires in the English Peak District |
|
| Authors: | Kevin Albertson Jonathan Aylen Gina Cavan Julia McMorrow |
| Institution: | 1. Department of Economics, Manchester Metropolitan University, Mabel Tylecote Building, Manchester M15 6BG, England, United Kingdom;2. Manchester Institute of Innovation Research, The University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, England, United Kingdom;3. CURE – Centre for Urban and Regional Ecology, The University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, England, United Kingdom;4. School of Environment and Development, The University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, England, United Kingdom |
| Abstract: | Warmer, drier summers brought by climate change increase the potential risk of wildfires on the moorland of the Peak District of northern England. Fires are costly to fight, damage the ecosystem, harm water catchments, cause erosion scars and disrupt transport. Fires release carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. Accurate forecasts of the timing of fires help deployment of fire fighting resources. |
| Keywords: | Climate change Wildfire Probit analysis General to specific Seasonality Risk assessment Forecast Backcast Tourism impact Time series Plant phenology National park |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ | |