The minerals sector, sectoral analysis, and economic development

Sectoral analysis, a new branch of political science, alleges that mineral extraction creates a socio-political climate that promotes inflexible statism, which in turn leads to substandard development performance. The theory, that mineral economies underperform bureaucratically and economically, is said not only to hold in a post-dictive sense for the mature mineral economies, such as Zambia, but also in a predictive sense for the newer mineral economies, such as Ecuador. This essay reviews and assesses this hypothesis in the light of the empirical evidence comparing mineral production, state capacity, and economic performance. It finds that the sectoralist view is supportable only in selected cases, and is not a general result.