Scenarios of Future Climate and Land-Management Effects on Carbon Stocks in Northern Patagonian Shrublands |
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Authors: | Analia Carrera Jorge Ares Juan Labraga Stephanie Thurner Mónica Bertiller |
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Institution: | (1) Centro Nacional Patagónico, Terrestrial Ecology Research Area, B. Brown 2825, 9120 Puerto Madryn, Argentina;(2) Centro Nacional Patagónico, Environmental Physics Research Area, B. Brown 2825, 9120 Puerto Madryn, Argentina;(3) Technic University of Münich, Territory Planning, 85354 Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany |
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Abstract: | We analyzed the possible effects of grazing management and future climate change on carbon (C) stocks in soils of northern
Patagonian shrublands. To this aim, we coupled the outputs of three (HadCM3, CSIRO Mk2, and CCSR/NIES) global climate models
to the CENTURY (v5.3) model of terrestrial C balance. The CENTURY model was initialized with long-term field data on local
biome physiognomy, seasonal phenologic trends, and prevailing land-management systems and was validated with recent sequences
of 1-km Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (MODIS-Terra) images and soil C data. In the tested scenarios, the predicted
climate changes would result in increased total C in soil organic matter (SOMTC). Maximum SOMTC under changed climate forcing
would not differ significantly from that expected under baseline conditions (8 kg m−2). A decrease in grazing intensity would result in SOMTC increases of 11% to 12% even if climate changes did not occur. Climate
change would account for SOMTC increases of 5% to 6%. |
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Keywords: | Carbon sequestration CENTURY model Climate change MODIS-Terra Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Semiarid land |
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