Approaches to Evaluating Climate Change Impacts on Species: A Guide to Initiating the Adaptation Planning Process |
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Authors: | Erika L Rowland Jennifer E Davison Lisa J Graumlich |
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Institution: | (1) School of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721, USA;(2) College of the Environment, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA;(3) Wildlife Conservation Society, Bozeman, MT 59715, USA |
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Abstract: | Assessing the impact of climate change on species and associated management objectives is a critical initial step for engaging
in the adaptation planning process. Multiple approaches are available. While all possess limitations to their application
associated with the uncertainties inherent in the data and models that inform their results, conducting and incorporating
impact assessments into the adaptation planning process at least provides some basis for making resource management decisions
that are becoming inevitable in the face of rapidly changing climate. Here we provide a non-exhaustive review of long-standing
(e.g., species distribution models) and newly developed (e.g., vulnerability indices) methods used to anticipate the response
to climate change of individual species as a guide for managers grappling with how to begin the climate change adaptation
process. We address the limitations (e.g., uncertainties in climate change projections) associated with these methods, and
other considerations for matching appropriate assessment approaches with the management questions and goals. Thorough consideration
of the objectives, scope, scale, time frame and available resources for a climate impact assessment allows for informed method
selection. With many data sets and tools available on-line, the capacity to undertake and/or benefit from existing species
impact assessments is accessible to those engaged in resource management. With some understanding of potential impacts, even
if limited, adaptation planning begins to move toward the development of management strategies and targeted actions that may
help to sustain functioning ecosystems and their associated services into the future. |
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