| Abstract: | ABSTRACT: A semi-distributed deterministic model for real-time flood forecasting in large basins is proposed. Variability of rainfall and losses in space is preserved and the effective rainfall-direct runoff model segment based on the Clark procedure is incorporated. The distribution of losses in space is assumed proportional to rainfall intensity and their evolution in time is represented by the φ-index; furthermore, an initial period without production of effective rainfall is considered. The first estimation of losses and the associated forecasts of flow are performed at the time corresponding to the first rise observed in the hydrograph. Then the forecasts of flow are corrected at each subsequent time step through the updating of the φ-index. The model was tested by using rainfall-runoff events observed on two Italian basins and the predictions of flow for lead times up to six hours agree reasonably well with the observations in each event. For example, for the coefficient of persistence, which compares the model forecasts with those generated by the no-model assumption, appreciable positive values were computed. In particular, for the larger basin with an area of 4,147 km2, the mean values were 0.4, 0.4 and 0.5 for forecast lead times of two hours, four hours and six hours, respectively. Good performance of the model is also shown by a comparison of its flow predictions with those derived from a unit hydrograph based model |
