粮食产量预测理论、方法与应用Ⅱ.粮食生产潜力短期预测理论、模型及其应用

粮食生产潜力短期预测结果可以检验粮食中长期生产潜力预测的准确性和为国家提供制定粮食生产战略的科学依据。粮食生产潜力短期预测理论即“趋势-波动理论”，它建立在粮食或作物“现状生产潜力”概念和“天-人-地概念模型”基础上，预测模型为最佳移动步长条件下的多年单产移动平均趋势模型，实际预测时采用系统预测方法。11个研究案例预测的平均误差为0.77％，最大误差为2.99％，预测精度高。本研究初步结论是：粮食生产潜力短期预测理论和模型是科学和实用的。

The Theory,Method and Its Application of the Grain Yield ForecastⅡ. The Theory,Method and Its Application of Short-Term Forecast of the Grain Yield Potential

The accuracy of the long-term forecast of grain production potential can be tested by the short-term forecast results of grain pro-duction potential, and the scientific basis for the national strategy of grain production also can be provided. The theory of short-term forecast of the grain production potential, namely, the theory of trend-volatility, is established on the basis of the concept of current production poten-tial of grain or crop and the conceptual model of climate, human and land. Forecasting model is the moving average trend model of multi-year per unit area yield under the condition of the optimum moving step. The systematic forecast method was used to predict the short-term grain production potential. The above theory and methods were demonstrated by 11 cases in China and three provinces, respectively. The average error of 11 cases was 0.77%, the maximum error was 2.99%, and the accuracy of prediction was high. The results showed that the theory and model of short-term forecast of the grain production potential were scientific and practical.