碳中和愿景下电力部门低碳转型路径研究

碳中和愿景一方面加速了全社会电气化发展,致使电力需求持续增加,另一方面对尽早实现零碳电力提出要求,电力部门低碳转型进程更加紧迫而复杂。本文首先定性分析碳中和背景下电力部门的总体转型思路和技术不确定性影响,其次采用电力部门与终端部门耦合的C~3IAM/NET模型对电力需求进行预测,同时根据关键低碳技术发展的保守预期和积极预期设计多种情景,以开展电力低碳转型路径优化和成本效益研究。结果显示,发电碳排放量峰值可能出现在40亿～42亿吨,在2049—2060年有望实现零碳电力,电力部门低碳转型速度和效果因技术不确定性而存在明显差异。2021—2060年电力低碳转型累计投入为171万亿～180万亿元,CCS技术累计减排贡献超过250亿吨,可再生能源电力占比需达到68%以上,风电和光电将成为主要电力。

The Path of Low-Carbon Transformation in China's Power Sector Under the Vision of Carbon Neutrality

Based on the reality and the development of ecological environment protection situation in China, such judgements could be made that, during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the ecological environment in China will go through the peak of the Environmental Kuznets Curve, the marginal cost of ecological environment quality improvement will be higher than ever before; the major and the minor contradictions in ecological environmental protection will be in a transformation process; and the reginal differentiations of economic and social development and ecological environment protection will co-exist. Therefore, in accordance with the target of building a strong modern socialist country and the state''s general plan of implementing a "two-step" strategy, with the guide of Xi Jinping'' thoughts of ecological civilization, this paper proposes the roadmap and principle of ecological environmental protection in China during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, including accelerating the modernization of governance system and implementation of key programs.