中国城市空气污染对人口流动的推拉效应研究

传统城市发展理论认为,空气污染会导致人口流出。然而,本文以城市雾霾数据为例,分类别构建固定效应模型后发现,空气污染会促进百强城市的人口净流入(形成拉力效应),非百强城市的人口净流出(形成推力效应)。拉力效应与传统的城市发展理论不符。本文认为,当城市间收入差距过大时,流入居民会形成高水平的收入预期,促使其愿意承受更严重的空气污染,该预期可量化为空气污染的拉力效应。据此进一步研究收入水平对推拉效应的调节作用发现,随着收入水平上升,其能放大百强城市的拉力效应和非百强城市的推力效应,即进一步促进百强城市的人口净流入和非百强城市的人口净流出。在此基础上,本文对百强城市和非百强城市分别提出政策建议,以期能为我国区域协调发展、城镇化科学转型提供理论支持。

Push-Pull Effect of Urban Air Pollution on Population Flow in China

Based on the high-quality development requirements of social, economic and environmental integration in the Yangtze River Delta region, a comprehensive evaluation and analysis of the environmental and economic policies of Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Anhui from 2011 to 2017 was carried out. The results showed that the environmental and economic policies in the Yangtze River Delta region demonstrated a good overall development trend, especially in terms of financial incentives and subsidies. However, there were obvious differences among these regions, and there was a lack of interaction among policies at the regional level. On this basis, combined with the Yangtze River Delta regional environmental quality improvement aim and pollution prevention cooperation demand, it is suggested to take the lead in the pilot projects of regional linkage in the fields of environmental protection fund, ecological compensation, emission trading and environmental credit system, with the support from mechanism, law, technology and other aspects, to explore the formation of regional environmental and economic policy consultation, sharing, win-win model.