多维度高质量城镇化对能源消费碳排放的传导机制研究

碳排放研究一直是国际气候变化领域研究的热点，高质量的城镇化有利于碳排放减少及全球气候变化减缓。本文从人口、土地、经济三个维度构建高质量城镇化评价指标体系，对2005—2019年中国30个省域的高质量城镇化水平进行评价，在理论机制分析的基础上利用中介效应模型验证了三个维度高质量城镇化对能源消费碳排放的中介效应。结果表明：不同维度的高质量城镇化水平对碳排放的影响不同，当前的人口高质量城镇化具有显著碳减排效果，经济高质量城镇化也具有一定碳减排作用，但现阶段土地高质量城镇化增加了碳排放；不同维度的高质量城镇化与能源消费碳排放之间存在不同的作用机制。具体而言，劳动力结构转型在人口高质量城镇化与碳排放间不存在中介效应，土地财政在土地高质量城镇化与碳排放间存在完全中介效应，经济集聚在经济高质量城镇化与碳排放间存在遮掩效应。

The Transmission Mechanism of Multidimensional High Quality Urbanization on Carbon Emissions of Energy Consumption

Carbon emission has always been a hot spot in the field of international climate change. High quality urbanization is conducive to carbon emission reduction and global climate change mitigation. The evaluation index system of high-quality urbanization in three dimensions of population, land and economy was constructed to evaluate the high-quality urbanization level of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2019. The intermediary effect model was used to verify the intermediary effect of three dimensions of high-quality urbanization on carbon emission of energy consumption based on the theoretical mechanism analysis. The results showed that three dimensions of high-quality urbanization had different effects on carbon emissions. The current population high-quality urbanization had a significant reduction effect on carbon emission, and the economic high-quality urbanization also had a certain carbon emission reduction effect, but the land high-quality urbanization increased carbon emissions at this stage. There were different mechanisms between high-quality urbanization and energy consumption carbon emissions in different dimensions. Specifically, the transformation of labor structure had no intermediary effect between high-quality urbanization and carbon emission, land finance had a complete intermediary effect between high-quality urbanization and carbon emission, and economic agglomeration had a masking effect between high-quality urbanization and carbon emission.