中国消费中长期发展趋势及能源环境效应研究

随着消费在经济发展中的比重逐步增加,其引致的能源消耗和污染物排放越来越不容忽视。本研究基于投入产出模型,分别测算了居民消费引致的直接和间接能源消耗与污染物排放,然后参考发达国家相应发展阶段的居民消费结构,展望未来居民消费发展趋势,进一步测算未来居民消费的能源与环境效应。未来我国消费占GDP的比重将稳步上升,到2050年逐步提高到70%以上;居民消费结构将显著调整,食品占比显著下降,仅为15%,文教娱乐、医疗保健和其他服务占比显著上升;居民消费引致的一次能源需求到2050年将达到30.4亿吨标煤,占全社会能源需求的52.4%;化学需氧量、氨氮、二氧化硫和氮氧化物排放量将分别达到2497万t、261万t、1722万t、1157万t,占全社会污染物排放产生量的60%以上。研究表明,进一步强化居民消费产品绿色低碳发展、优化居民消费结构,将成为未来推进我国高质量发展和污染防治的重要领域。

The Medium and Long Term Development Trend of China's Consumption and Its Energy and Environmental Effects

With the increasing proportion of consumption in the economy, the energy consumption and pollutant emission caused by consumption cannot be ignored. Based on the input-output model, the research estimates the direct and indirect energy consumption and pollutant emissions caused by the residents'' consumption. And referring to the consumption structure of developed countries in the development stage, the research looks forward to the development trend of future consumption and further measures the energy and environmental effects of future consumption. In the future, the proportion of residents'' consumption in GDP will rise steadily and gradually increase to more than 70% by 2050; the consumption structure of residents will be significantly adjusted and the proportion of food will be significantly reduced, only 15%, and the proportion of culture, education, entertainment, health care and other services will be significantly increased; the primary energy demand caused by residents'' consumption will reach 3.04 billion tons of standard coal by 2050, accounting for 52.4% of the total energy demand of the whole society; the emissions of school oxygen demand, ammonia nitrogen, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen oxide will reach 24.97 million tons, 2.61 million tons, 17.22 million tons and 11.57 million tons respectively, accounting for more than 60% of the total emissions of pollutants in the whole society. It shows that further strengthening the green and low-carbon consumer products and optimizing the consumption structure will become an important field to promote the high-quality development and pollution prevention in China in the future.