中央环保绩效考核对地方二氧化硫排放量的影响：基于“十一五”与“十二五”时期的检验

基于"十一五"和"十二五"期间(2006—2015)我国31个省份的面板数据,以二氧化硫排放量为研究对象,发现以环境约束性指标为抓手的环保绩效考核有效减少了地方的二氧化硫排放量,且"十二五"期间的政策驱动力比"十一五"期间更强。随着环保绩效考核的持续推进,年轻的省委书记越来越关注污染减排,但与年长的省委书记相比,环境绩效依然较差。总体来说,官员异质性对环境政策执行效果的影响正在逐渐减弱,制度化机制对地方环境治理的驱动效果正在增强。在"十四五"期间,进一步优化中央环保绩效考核制度将成为"打赢蓝天保卫战"的关键所在。

The Impact of Central Environmental Performance Assessment on Local SO2 Emissions: An Examination Based on the 11th and 12th Five-Year Plan Period

Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China during the 11th and 12th Five-Year Plan Period (2006-2015), this study finds that the environmental performance assessment based on binding targets effectively reduces local SO₂ emissions, and the policy efficacy during the 12th Five-Year Plan is stronger than that during the 11th Five-Year Plan. With the continuous implementation of the environmental performance assessment, relatively younger provincial Party committee secretaries gradually pay more attention to pollution reduction, but compared with older provincial Party committee secretaries, their environmental performance is still worse. Generally speaking, the impact of officials'' heterogeneity on the policy implementation is gradually weakening, and the driving effect of institutionalized mechanism is strengthening. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the further optimization of the central environmental performance assessment system will be critical to win the "Blue Sky Defense War".