“十二五”以来中国低碳发展进展及政策评估

中国已经比较系统地构建起推动低碳发展、积极应对气候变化的低碳发展目标体系、规划体系和体制机制,及时开展中国低碳发展进展及政策评估,对于反映政策进展与成效、识别问题与挑战、指导下一阶段的低碳发展工作具有重要意义。本文使用层次分析法构建起包含35个评价指标的中国低碳发展指数,对2010—2018年中国的低碳发展进展和政策进行系统的定性定量评价。结果显示:"十二五"以来,中国的低碳产业发展进展显著,但二氧化碳排放控排水平、能源领域的低碳发展仍有较大提升空间;低碳发展政策建设水平显著提升,但低碳发展政策目标的科学性和有效性不足,管理体制、制度建设、配套机制均有待完善。本文建议,围绕国家二氧化碳排放达峰目标,研究制定"十四五"时期低碳发展的政策目标,以碳排放总量管理作为2020年以后我国低碳发展的基础性制度,有序推动低碳发展配套制度建设,完善低碳管理的信息机制和资金机制建设,抓好建筑、交通等重点领域碳排放增量管理工作,加强对已发布的低碳发展相关规划、控温方案、低碳试点示范的效果评估。

China's Low-Carbon Development Progress and Policy Evaluation Since the 12th Five-Year Plan Period

By formulating comprehensive policies and actively practicing the idea of green and low-carbon, China has systematically constructed a low-carbon development target system, planning system and institutional mechanism of which promoting low-carbon development and addressing climate change positively. It''s imperative to timely launch an evaluation on China''s low-carbon development progress and policy for the sake of reflecting policy progress and effectiveness, identifying problems and challenges, and guiding lowcarbon development in the coming future. This article constitutes China''s low-carbon development index using analytic hierarchy process and makes a qualitative and quantitative evaluation on China''s low-carbon development and policies from 2010 to 2018, based on open data. Results indicates that China''s low-carbon development of overall industry has made remarkable progress since the 12th Five-Year Plan period. However, there is still much to improve in the carbon dioxide emission controlling and the low-carbon development in energy sector. China''s low-carbon development policy system has been significantly developed, but the low-carbon development policy targets are lack of scientificity and effectiveness. Analogously, there is still something to be improve on the management system, system construction and supporting mechanism of low-carbon development. It is highly recommended that the policy targets of low-carbon development in the 14th Five-Year Plan period should be studied and formulated as soon as possible revolving round the national target of carbon emission peak, and the total carbon emission management should be implement as the fundamental system after 2020. Furthermore, China should promote the construction of supporting systems, information mechanism and financial mechanism continuously, while strictly control carbon emission increment in construction and transportation sectors. Systematic evaluation on low-carbon related plans, working plan on greenhouse gas emissions controlling, and low-carbon pilot construction is also recommended.