中原经济区能源消费视角下的大气环境压力评估

研究以能源消费模式为切入点,分析中原经济区能源消费总量、消费结构和利用效率的现状水平,并分析能源消费引起的大气环境压力状况。基于经济发展速度调控及节能减排力度的不同,设置2020年三种能源消费情景,使用区域能源消费总量优化模型模拟预测不同情景下的能源消费总量,并分析不同情景下的大气环境压力。结果表明,快速发展和适度发展Ⅰ情景下,2020年区域能源消费总量将比2012年增加4.2×10~8tce和2.4×10~8tce,煤炭消费总量将增加3.1×10~8tce和1.2×10~8tce,大气污染物排放压力增加30%和50%;适度发展Ⅱ情景下,能源消费总量将增加0.2×10~8tce,煤炭消费总量将下降0.3×10~8tce,大气污染物排放压力将降低20%。因此,要实现经济发展稳步增长(年均增长率7.7%)和大气污染物排放总量削减10%目标,重中之重是实现煤炭消费总量"零增长"或"负增长",同时力争能源消费总量控制在5×10~8~6×10~8tce,凭借煤炭占比大幅下降(降至65%左右)最大限度发挥能源供给领域节能效应,依靠产业结构升级节能效应和技术节能拓展能源消费领域节能空间,将能效水平提高至0.6tce/万元以下。

Atmospheric Environmental Pressure Assessment under the Perspective of Energy Consumption in Central Plains Economic Region

Under the perspective of energy consumption mode, the total energy consumption, energy structure and energy utilization efficiency were investigated in Central Plains Economic Region(CPER). Additionally, atmospheric environmental pressure induced by energy consumption was also analyzed. According to economic development speed regulation and energy conservation efforts, three energy consumption scenarios in 2020 were designed including rapid development,i and ii moderate development scenarios.Using the regional total energy consumption optimization model, the total energy consumption and atmospheric environmental pressure were evaluated and predicted under the three given scenarios. The results showed that under the rapid development and i moderate development scenarios, the total energy consumption in 2020 will increase 420 and 240 million tons of coal equivalents than that in 2012, the total coal consumption will increase 310 and 120 million tons, but the emission pressure of atmospheric pollutants will increase 30% and 50%. Under the ii moderate development scenario, the total energy consumption will increase 20 million tons of coal equivalents, the total coal consumption will reduce 30 million tons, and while the emission pressure of atmospheric pollutants will reduce 20%. Therefore, to achieve the steady growth in economic development (7.7% per year) and 10% reduction in emission pressure of atmospheric pollutants, the top priority was to realize "zero growth" or "negative growth" in the total coal consumption. Meanwhile, the total energy consumption should be controlled within 500-600 million tons of coal equivalents. According to a substantial decline of coal proportion (down to 65%) in the total energy consumption, the utmost energy-saving effect can be produced in energy supply field. Rely on energy-saving effect by upgrading the industrial structure and energy-saving technologies to expand the saving space in energy consumption field and to raise the energy efficiency under 0.06tce/thousand yuan.