我国出口贸易中的碳排放转移测算研究

国际贸易中碳排放转移关系到贸易双方的碳权分配与碳排放责任,处理好贸易出口和碳排放关系非常重要。本研究应用投入产出法及模型,对我国2002—2011年出口贸易的碳排放进行测算。结果显示,出口贸易与出口贸易隐含碳排放呈现出同比增长关系,从出口规模和结构看,电气、机械及器材制造业,基本金属及金属制品业,通用、专用设备制造业,化学原料和化学制品制造业等行业的碳排放位居前列,行业高碳结构性特征明显;短期内出口贸易与出口隐含碳的正相关关系不会有明显变化,但从长期来看二者的正相关关系将会趋于减弱。本研究提出以碳减排为约束,转变出口贸易结构,促进传统制造业优化升级,发展低碳贸易产品和绿色产业等建议。

Research on Carbon Emissions Transfer Evaluation in Export Trade of China

The relationship of carbon emissions in the international trade is related to carbon distribution rights and carbon emissions responsibility of the two parties. It''s very important on treating well the relationship between export trade and carbon emissions. In this paper, the carbon emissions of export trade from 2002 to 2011 in China were calculated by inputoutput method. The results showed that the export trade and implied carbon emissions of export trade have a year on year growth relationship. Looking form the sector export scale and structure, carbon emissions of appliances and machine manufacturing, metal manufacturing, equipment manufacturing industry, chemical products manufacturing and other industries are in the forefront. In the short term, there will be no obvious change in the positive correlation between the export trade and the export implied carbon, but the positive correlation between the two will tend to weaken in the long run. The paper put forward the suggestion of transforming the export trade structure, promoting the transformation and upgrading of the traditional manufacturing industry, developing the low carbon trade products and green industry.