我国大气细颗粒物污染防治目标和控制措施研究

我国面临着严重的细颗粒物(PM2.5)污染问题,PM2.5对人体健康、能见度、气候变化、生态系统等均产生了不良影响。本文旨在提出我国PM2.5污染防治目标和控制措施,为从根本上改善空气质量提供科学依据。首先,本文提出了2020年和2030年我国PM2.5污染防治目标。其次,采用能源和污染排放技术模型,分情景预测了我国未来一次大气污染物排放量的变化趋势。基于情景预测结果和此前研究建立的一次污染物排放与PM2.5浓度间的非线性关系,确定了2020年—2030年与PM2.5浓度改善相适应的全国和重点区域大气污染物减排目标。最后,利用能源和污染排放技术模型,提出了实现大气污染物减排的技术措施和对策建议。研究表明,2030年全国二氧化硫、氮氧化物、一次PM2.5和挥发性有机物的排放量应分别比2012年至少削减51%、64%、53%和36%,氨排放量也要略有下降。对于污染严重的重点区域,必须采取更严格的控制力度。要实现上述减排,应加快能源结构调整,推进煤炭清洁高效集中可持续利用,建立"车-油-路"一体的移动源控制体系,并强化多源多污染物的末端控制。

Target and Measures to Prevent and Control Ambient Fine Particle Pollution in China

China is facing with severe fine particle (PM2.5) pollution, which has adverse effect on human health, visibility, climate change, and ecological system. This study aims to propose the target and measures to prevent and control ambient PM2.5 pollution in China. Firstly, we proposed China''s PM2.5 pollution control targets for 2020 and 2030. Then, we projected the future emissions of primary air pollutants in China for six control scenarios with an energy utilization and pollution control technology model. Based on the projection results and the non-linear relationship between emissions of primary air pollutants and ambient PM2.5 concentrations established in previous studies, we determined the emission reductions required for the mitigation of ambient PM2.5 pollutionin 2020 and 2030 for both whole China and key regions. Finally, the technical measures and related policies were advanced using previousmodel. The results indicated that the national emissions of sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides, primary PM2.5, and volatile organic compounds should be reduced by 51%, 64%, 53%, and 36%, respectively, by 2030 from the 2012 levels. The ammonia emissions should also be reduced slightly. More stringent emission controls should be enforced in heavy-pollution regions. To achieve such emission reductions, we should accelerate energy structure adjustment, promote the clean, efficient, centralized, and sustainable utilization of coal, establish the"vehicle-fuel-road"integrated control system for mobile sources, and tighten the end-of-pipe control measures for multiple sources and multiple pollutants.