京津冀PM2.5浓度控制目标可达性分析

雾霾污染已成为京津冀地区最突出的环境问题,国务院颁布了《大气污染防治行动计划》,明确提出了京津冀地区雾霾治理的浓度目标和减排措施。但是这些减排措施能否够实现PM2.5的浓度目标呢?本文基于数据分析方法,量化了2013—2014年京津冀地区PM2.5浓度与污染物排放量的关系,预测了现有减排措施可以达到的PM2.5浓度以及实现既定的PM2.5浓度目标的大气污染物减排要求,对"大气十条"减排政策的有效性进行了科学评估。结果显示,现有的减排措施难以实现PM2.5浓度控制目标,天津和河北的大多数地市需要进一步加大污染物减排力度。河北的部分地市即使实现了PM2.5浓度下降25%的目标,PM2.5浓度仍然过高,应改下降百分比为绝对值目标。北京的污染物减排率过高,减排难度较大,可以考虑一个现实合理的PM2.5浓度目标和污染物减排计划。由于污染物减排行动涉及区域经济和民生保障,PM2.5浓度受到风力等自然因素的影响较大,京津冀地区的雾霾治理应确定现实可行的浓度控制目标,并制定相应的污染物排放量管理目标。

An Evaluation of the Smog Control Policy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Smog pollution has become one of the most serious environmental problems in China. Chinesegovernment has issued a smog control policy in 2013, which aims to alleviate smog pollution through reducing emission of air pollutants. However, there is a doubt whether the smog concentration target can be achieved through implementation of the air pollutants emission reduction plan. This paper focused upon the numerical relationship between smog concentration and air pollutants emission based on data analysis approach in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The results indicated that the smog concentration target cannot be achieved through implementation of the air pollutants emission reduction plan in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, and Tianjin and Hebei need to reduce much more air pollutants emission to reach the target. The emission reduction plan of Beijing is too ambitious to be realized in 2017.Even if the emission reduction plan wasrealizedin 2017, Beijing is still difficult to achieve the concentration target (60ppm). The smog control policy in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region should shift from concentration target to emission control target. Tianjin and Hebei should reduce much more air pollutants emission. Beijing should consider a more reasonable concentration target and emission control plan.