安徽省经济发展与生态环境耦合协调评价与趋势预测

本文遵循客观、科学、综合原则,运用熵值赋权法,对经济与生态环境系统进行了评价;采用动态耦合模型及剪刀差分析方法对经济发展与生态环境系统耦合协调状况进行了考察;借助Excel 2003软件,通过作散点图,比较拟合优度分析方法,对两者的协调前景进行了预测。结果表明:①经济发展与生态环境系统综合指数分别由2005年的0.2934、0.4198跃升至2015年的0.6236、0.4198,经济发展系统升幅明显高于生态环境系统。②2005—2015年,经济发展与生态环境系统动态耦合度均值为-6.95°,整体处于由低级协调向协调演进状态,而两者间演化速度夹角由2005年的18.56°扩展至2015年的82.4°。③若按既有惯性发展模式,2020年经济发展与生态环境系统耦合度将达155.74°,预期处于极限发展状态。基于研究结果,本文提出了相应的应对策略,可为新常态下安徽省制定经济与生态文明融动发展政策提供决策参考。

Dynamic Coupling Coordination Evaluation and Trend Prediction of Economic and Ecological Environment System in Anhui Province

Advocating the coordinated development of economy and ecological environment is the important content for the implementation of the five important concepts of development. The entropy weighting method was used in this paper to evaluate the economic and ecological environment system, following the objective, scientific and comprehensive principles. The dynamic coupling model and the price scissors analysis method were employed to investigate the coupling condition of the ecological environment and economic system, and then its coordination prospect was predicated through the goodnessof-fit analysis method and scatter plots by using Excel 2003 software. The results showed as follows: Firstly, the economic and ecological environment comprehensive index jumped from 0.2934 and 0.4198 in 2005 to 0.6236 and 0.6399 in 2015, which indicated that the economic system increase was significantly higher than that of the ecological environment system; Secondly, the mean value of dynamic coupling degree of economic and ecological system was-6.95° from 2005 to 2015, which indicated that the overall state evolved from the low level coordination to coordination, however, the evolution velocity angle of them expanded from 18.56° in 2005 to 82.4° in 2015; Thirdly, according to the existing inertia development model, the coupling degree of the economic and ecological environment system in 2020 will reach to 155.74°, which was expected to be in the limit state of development. Based on the research results, the corresponding countermeasures were put forward in this paper, which could provide reference for policy-making about the dynamic development of economic and ecological civilization in Anhui province under the new normal.