基于LMDI的长江中下游城市群污染排放强度分析

长江中下游城市群地区工业重化特征明显,工业水污染排放贡献超过10%,大气污染物占比更超过70%。本文采用迪氏对数指标分解法(LMDI)识别长江中下游城市群污染排放的主要影响因子,对长江中下游城市群重点行业COD、氨氮、SO_2、NO_x排放强度进行分析。将排放强度拆分为末端削减、技术工业和产品结构三个指标,分析2012—2020年和2020—2030年两个时间段内,对污染排放强度降低贡献度最高的影响因素。结果表明,末端削减和技术工艺对污染排放强度降低影响大,贡献值之和约为90%,两者分别代表末端处理技术对污染排放的削减程度,以及高附加值行业单位产值污染物产生水平;COD、SO_2和氨氮的排放强度由末端削减和技术工艺共同作用,NO_x的排放强度较高且未来末端削减水平进步小,未来需要重视该污染物的减排和治理。

Emission Intensity of the Urban Agglomeration in the Middle-Lower Yangtze River Belt Based on the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index

The industrial system accounts more than 10% water pollutant and over 70% air pollutant in the urban agglomeration in the Middle-Lower Yangtze River Belt, mainly with heavy industry and chemical industry. To identify the main influence factors of the emission intensity in the urban agglomeration in the Middle-Lower Yangtze River Belt, this paper applies the method of Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) to analyze COD, ammonia nitrogen, SO₂ and NO_x emissions for the local region and then decomposes the industrial population emission intensity into end-of-pipe treatment, technical craft and product mix. The results show that the reduction of emission intensity would be mainly relayed on endof-pipe treatment and technical craft in the two time periods (2012-2020, 2020-2030). They contribute almost 90% to the emission intensity, represent the level of pollutant reductions in end of pipe control and productive process respectively. The highest effects of COD, SO₂ and ammonia nitrogen are controlled by end-of-pipe treatment and technical craft simultaneously. The mitigation and improvement of NO_x should be renovated to cut down the high density and update the bad treatment.