| On the Flood Disasters in the Lower Jingjiang Reaches: Grey Prediction Model and Application |
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| 作者姓名： | Yang Guifang Huang Changsheng Yin Hongfu & Li Chang'an State Key Laborary of Estuarine and Coastal Research East China Normal University Shanghai China China University of Geosciences Wuhan China |
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| 作者单位： | Yang Guifang 1，Huang Changsheng 2，Yin Hongfu 2 & Li Chang'an 2 1 State Key Laborary of Estuarine and Coastal Research，East China Normal University，Shanghai 200062，China; 2 China University of Geosciences，Wuhan 430074，China |
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| 摘 要： | 1 INTRODUCTION Located in the transition area of the natural zones between north and south as well as the typical subtropical zone featured with warm-wet in the summer and cool-moisture in the winter (Shen, 1986; Chen et al., 2001), the MiddleYangtze reach is of great importance in the development and flood control of this region (Chen et al., 2001; Yin and Li, 2001). Due principally to the special geological setting and geographic location, the lower Jingjiang reach, typical of vast fl…
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On the Flood Disasters in the Lower Jingjiang Reaches: Grey Prediction Model and Application |
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| Yang Guifang ,Huang Changsheng ,Yin Hongfu & Li Chang''''an State Key Laborary of Estuarine and Coastal Research,East China Normal University,Shanghai ,China, China University of Geosciences,Wuhan ,China.On the Flood Disasters in the Lower Jingjiang Reaches: Grey Prediction Model and Application[J].Chinese JOurnal of Population Resources and Environment,2005(3). |
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| Authors: | Yang Guifang Huang Changsheng Yin Hongfu & Li Chang'an State Key Laborary of Estuarine and Coastal Research East China Normal University Shanghai China China University of Geosciences Wuhan China |
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| Institution: | Yang Guifang 1,Huang Changsheng 2,Yin Hongfu 2 & Li Chang'an 2 1 State Key Laborary of Estuarine and Coastal Research,East China Normal University,Shanghai 200062,China, 2 China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China |
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| Abstract: | In the light of the historical substantial data (covering a 70-year period) collected in the Lower Jingjiang segment and aided by topological grey method, here we attempt to characterize the occurrence and future trend of flood calamities in the study area. Our findings indicate that overall the high-frequent flood disasters with middle to lower damage prevail at present. A series of dramatic flood waves will appear in the years of 2016, 2022, 2030 and 2042, particularly a destructive flood will occur between 2041 and 2045 in the Lower Jingjiang reaches. Typical of sensitive response to flood hazards in close association with its special geographical location, the lower Jingjiang segment hereby can reflect the development trend of floods in the middle Yangtze reaches. According to the results, a good fitness was revealed between the prediction and practical values. This actually hints that the topological grey method is an effective mathematical means of resolving problems containing uncertainty and indetermination, thus providing valuable information for the flood prediction in the middle Yangtze catchment. |
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| Keywords: | flood hazard prediction occurrence future trend grey system method lower jingjiang reaches |
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