新农保扩大内需的实证分析

新农保制度是新推出保障农村老年居民基本生活为目标的社会政策,为评估新农保对扩大内需的作用,运用湖北省50个县域经济数据,遵循有效性和简约性的变量筛选原则,选取GDP为控制变量,构建倍差法模型,采用固定效应估计,发现新农保有扩大内需的显著效应。根据扩大内需的内在机制,这一实证结果表明:农民对新农保制度有较好的预期与较大的信心,即新农保制度增强了农民的安全感;农民具有一定的缴费能力,即新农保没有挤出消费;中国农村存在较为普遍的谨慎防备的消费心理,即安全感的增强提振了农民的消费;新农保缩小了收入差距,即新农保扩大了边际消费。新农保扩大内需的效应说明经济政策与社会政策、公平与效率在中国当前可以统一,为保持经济健康可持续发展,中国应逐步摆脱过分强调经济建设和经济政策的发展战略,逐渐转到更加重视社会建设和社会政策的发展轨道上来。但新农保扩大内需的效果没有在整体经济中充分凸显出来,因此需要进一步地扩大新农保覆盖面。

Empirical Analysis on New System of Rural Endowment Inducing Domestic Demand

The new system of rural endowment is a new social policy to guarantee the basic livelihood of the aged rural population.In order to explore the system’s effect of inducing domestic demand,the economic data of fifty counties of Hubei Province are analyzed in difference-in-difference model.Following the principle of effectiveness and simplicity of variable selection,GDP is taken as the control variable to estimate the policy’s fixed effects,and the result shows that the new system of rural endowment plays a significant effect of expanding domestic demand.According to the inherent mechanism of expanding domestic demand,the empirical results of this study show that: the new system of rural endowment enhanced consumption confidence of farmers,who are expected to have better and greater confidence to the new system.Security enhanced by the system boosted the consumption of farmers,whose income level is not too low and who has a certain ability to pay.Also,the new system of rural endowment improves income distribution;this is to say,it expands the margin consumption.Therefore currently,in China economic policy and social policy,equity and efficiency can be unified and should be overall considered.In order to maintain a healthy and sustainable development of China’s economy,China should gradually get rid of too much emphasis on economic development policy and strategy,while pay more attention to social development and social policy.In a word,although the effect of the system of inducing domestic demand is significant,the effect of expanding domestic demand in the overall economy has not fully surfaced,so the the current coverage of new system of rural endowment should be further expanded.