特大型城市客运交通碳排放与减排对策研究

本文基于对现有城市交通碳排放测算方法的比较分析,以上海市为例,采用IPCC"自下而上"法对特大型城市客运交通CO2排放进行了测算,结果显示:轨道交通是碳排放效率最高的客运方式,出租车最低;客运交通CO2排放总量增长迅速,且碳源结构发生了较大变化;近年客运交通CO2排放增量主要来自私人载客汽车,同时公务交通在客运交通碳排放中始终占较大比重。由此本文认为,控制客运交通碳排放的关键在于对以私人载客汽车和单位载客汽车为主的个体交通的管理和控制,形成以公共交通为主的交通结构。在此基础上,为了将控制碳排放纳入到城市交通政策目标中去,本文就主要城市交通政策对客运交通碳排放产生的影响进行了深入分析,并得出结论:以往的交通供给、需求管理政策对于抑制客运交通碳排放增长的作用有限;而就目前城市空间发展政策的实施效果而言,也不利于降低居民出行的碳排放水平。文章最后分别从交通供给、需求管理以及城市空间角度给出了控制客运交通碳排放的对策。

Research On Carbon Emissions From Metropolis Urban Passenger Transport and Countermeasures

Based on the comparative analysis of existing CO2 emissions estimation methods,this paper,taking Shanghai as an example,estimates the CO2 emissions of urban passenger transport with IPCC "bottom to up" method.The results show that urban rail transit has the highest efficiency of carbon emissions while taxi the last;CO2 emissions from urban passenger transport grows fast and its structure has changed a lot;in recent years,the increment of CO2 emissions is mainly caused by the private automobile;CO2 emissions from official transport has always been occupying a certain proportion in total.Therefore,the paper indicates that the key of controlling CO2 emissions is the management of individual traffic which mainly contains private and officinal cars,and forming a kind of traffic structure dominated by public transportation.In order to take the control of CO2 emissions as one of the policy objectives,the impacts of transport policy on CO2 emissions are deeply analyzed.And conclusions are that there is no significant beneficial function produced by traffic supply policy and demand management policy on CO2 emissions control;considering the implementation effect of the spatial development policy,it is not conducive to lower the level of the residents travel carbon emissions.Finally,several suggestions are given to achieve the objective of controlling the CO2 emissions from the aspects of traffic supply,demand management and urban spatial structure.