西北地区能源-环境-经济可持续发展预警研究——以陕西省为例

能源、环境与经济是人类社会生存与发展的物质基础,能源经济发展在带来区域经济快速繁荣的同时,往往造成当地社会生活质量的下降和生态环境的破坏。陕西作为我国21世纪重要的能源接续地,在能源开发利用的同时也受到脆弱生态环境的约束,本文以此为例进行可持续发展预警实证研究具有一定的代表性和现实意义。通过设计能源-环境-经济可持续发展预警指标体系,构建出可持续发展预警模型,采用人工神经网络预警方法和层次分析法,编写出计算运行程序,运用Matlab7.1软件中人工神经网络工具箱,将有关数据信息和预警模型有机结合,探讨能源-环境-经济可持续发展理论构建与应用问题。研究结果表明:陕西能源-环境-经济的可持续发展趋势在2000-2014年间分别处于重警、中警、轻警和无警四种状态,基本符合陕西能源产业发展现状;所设计的预警指标能较好地反映出能源-环境-经济可持续发展的特征;基于BP人工神经网络的预警方法具有较强的仿真能力,能提高可持续发展预警的准确性,在能源产业可持续发展预警研究中具有一定的应用价值。

Early Warning Research of Energy Industry of Sustainability Development in Shaanxi

Resource,environment and economy are the material basis of the survival of human society and economic development.The development of resources’ economy not only brought rapid economic prosperity,but also led to the degradation of local economic,social and ecological environment.As an important energy basis in the 21st Century,energy development and utilization in Shaanxi is constrained by fragile ecological environment.The early warning research is representative and practical significance.The paper designs these early-warning indicators and the early-warning model in resource-environment-economy with the application of artificial neural network warning method and AHP.The paper combines the related data and designs the Matlab7.1 programs for the sustainable development of early warning research.The results show that,the tendency of Shaanxi 3E sustainable development in 2000-2014 is in heavy,common,light and no alarm,which is in accordance with the development of Shaanxi energy industry.The early warning indicator can reveal the characteristics of sustainable development of energy,environment and economy.The method of BP artificial neural network based on the early warning function is valid in the research of the sustainable development of energy industry.