1990-2009年中国省际环境污染综合评价

本文以中国省级经济单元为分析对象,以环境污染为研究中心,基于"纵横向"拉开档次法的动态综合评价原理,通过构建具有"三维"特征的环境污染动态综合评价模型,计算了各省1990-2009年的环境污染综合指数,研究了影响环境污染变动的决定因素。结论认为,在样本考察期内,污染物排放最少(即环境质量最好)的省份依次为:青海、天津、北京、宁夏、新疆、甘肃、上海、吉林、福建、云南,这10个省份的环境污染综合指数都在1.50以下;要完成"十二五"主要污染物排放比2010年下降8%的减排目标,四川、河北、山东、辽宁、山西、江苏、河南、广东、湖南、广西是重点监控省份。分地区看,西部地区环境污染最小,依次为中部和东部。污染物排放变动的影响因素分析表明,提高经济发展水平、增加污染治理投资、加强企业环境管制能力对降低污染物排放具有一定的积极作用,第二产业所占比重、国有及国有控股工业所占比重及煤炭消费所占比重增加具有显著增加污染物排放的作用,外资进入对环境污染有一定的影响。据此提出了优化环境质量的对策建议。

China' s Provincial Environment Assessment: An Empirical Analysis Based on the Years from 1990 to 2009

The present paper,taking provincial economic unit as the object of analysis,and environmental pollution as the focus of study,based on the dynamic comprehensive evaluation principle of "vertical and horizontal" grading approach,and through constructing a dynamic comprehensive evaluation model of environmental pollution with the "3 D" feature,calculates the composite index of provincial environmental pollution from 1990 to 2009,and studies the determinants that affect changes in environmental pollution.It is concluded that during the sample review period,the provinces or metropolitans that have the least pollutant discharge(i.e.,environment quality is the best) are as follows(in proper order): Qinghai,Tianjin,Beijing,Ningxia,Xinjiang,Gansu,Shanghai,Jilin,Fujian and Yunnan,and their Composite index of environmental pollution is below 1.50;to fulfill the 8% emission rednction target of major pollutants set in the 12th Five-Year Plan compared to 2010,Sichuan,Hebei,Shandong,Liaoning,Shanxi,Jiangsu,Henan,Guangdong,Hunan and Guangxi are the major provinces and regions that need to be monitored.In terms of regions,the west region has the least environmental pollution,followed by the central and eastern regions.The analysis on influencing factors on the changes in pollutant discharges shows that to raise economic development level,and enhance the capability of enterprises in environment management can play a positive role,that to increase the proportion of the secondary industry,the proportion of state-owned industries and industries whose controlling stock is owned by the state and the proportion of coal consumption will remarkably increase the discharge of pollutants,and that to introduce foreign capital will affect environmental pollution to some extent.Based on these,countermeasures and suggestion are given to optimize environment quality.