碳关税对中国出口贸易的影响及应对策略

碳关税是美国提出的针对国际贸易中高能耗进口产品征税的一种新型绿色贸易壁垒。从表面上看,碳关税的提出是为了缓解全球气候变暖的现实,促进全球贸易的公平竞争。实质上,碳关税的提出是美国国内政治经济博弈的结果,其目的是为了夺取世界经济新的话语权,同时也是为了制衡中国在内的发展中国家。碳关税对我国出口的影响机制有二:第一,碳关税产生的价格效应促使出口商品成本上升,出口量下降,造成出口国净福利损失。第二,长期来看,碳关税的环境规制效应会促使出口企业实施创新、改进效率,企业竞争力增强。但是,就短期来说,由于我国尚不具备"波特假说"成立的前提条件,碳关税会促使成本上升,出口产品竞争力下降。本文系统分析了我国出口商品结构和地理方向,指出碳关税的推出将对我国当前出口贸易形成严峻的挑战,长期看将有利于我国市场结构、产业结构和出口结构的改善。基于以上的分析,文章提出了政府"环境外交"、逐步开征国内碳税、构建绿色制造体系等政策建议。

Influences of Carbon Tariffs on Chinese Export and Countermeasures

Carbon tariffs are new green trade barriers put forward by the United States to be imposed on energy-intensive products imported.It seems that the purpose of introducing carbon tariffs is to reduce global warming effects and to guarantee fair competition in global business transactions.But the fact is that the purpose of carbon tariffs is to dominate the speech right and contain the developing countries including China.Carbon tariffs influence China’s export-oriented businesses in two ways.First,it will make the cost of production become bigger which will in turn reduce exportation and make the export countries suffer from welfare losses.Second,carbon tariffs’ environment regulations will force export-oriented enterprises to take reformation and enhance their efficiency and make them become more competitive in the long run.However,in the short run,as China does not have the prerequisite for "Porter Hypothesis",carbon tariffs will lead to rising costs and declining competitiveness of export products.This paper systematically analyzes composition of China’s export and direction of China’s export,points out that the introduction of carbon tariffs will impose a severe challenge on China’s exportation in the present and better the market structure,the industrial structure and export structure in the long run.To deal with this situation,China’s government should take countermeasures such as taking "environment diplomacy",imposing gradually carbon tax,and constructing green manufacturing system,etc.