基于VAR模型的水资源利用与经济增长动态关系研究

基于VAR模型,通过变量平稳性检验和协整分析,广义脉冲响应和预测方差分解分析,利用中国1980-2007年水资源利用和经济增长相关数据,对中国经济增长与水资源利用的长期均衡关系及其动态性进行了实证分析。研究结果表明:①经济增长与总用水量、工业用水量和生活用水量之间存在长期均衡关系,而农业用水与经济增长之间不存在长期均衡关系,这与研究期间中国处于工业化中期阶段的事实相吻合;②经济增长对水资源利用的冲击响应的滞后期短且是非渐进的,而水资源对经济增长产生显著影响的滞后期较长且是非渐进的,我国经济发展中工业用水、生活用水量增加趋势明显,农业用水量随着经济发展出现零增长和负增长;③经济增长对水资源利用的预测方差起着重要作用,而水资源利用对经济增长的预测方差的贡献度较小。建议加强工业用水和生活用水的节水措施,减少工业和生活用水量,实现水资源可持续利用。

Study on the Dynamic Relationship Between Economic Growth and Water Resources-Use Based on the VAR Model

Based on the VAR model,the long term dynamic relationship between Chinese economic growth and water resources use is analyzed by using the variable stationary test and co-integration analysis,impulse response and variance decomposition analysis,and the related data of water resources and GDP indices in China from 1980 to 2007.The results show that economic growth is extendedly and dynamically related to total water resources consumption,industrial water consumption and domestic water consumption,but it is not the case with agricultural water consumption.This accords with the fact that China is in the mid-term of industrialization.Moreover,the lag phase of the shock response of economic growth to water resources-use is short and non-asymptotic,whereas the lag phase of the impact of water resources-use on economic growth is long and non-asymptotic.With the development of Chinese economy,industrial and living water consumption is obviously increasing while agricultural water consumption shows the trends of zero growth and negative growth.Additionally,variance decomposition analysis indicates that economic growth is the main variable to the forecasting mean square error of water resources while it is not so vice versa.Therefore,water-saving measures of industrial and living consumption should be strengthened so as to reduce water consumption and achieve sustainable use of water resources.