中国城市化与能源强度关系的交互动态响应分析

基于1990-2009年的统计数据,建立城市化率和能源强度间的向量自回归模型,运用协整分析、脉冲响应函数和动态方差分解法,从不同视角对两组变量的交互动态响应关系进行分析和预测,旨在揭示我国城市化水平与能源利用效率的内在联系、互动机制与发展趋势。分析结果表明:尽管在短期内呈现波动态势,我国城市化水平与能源强度之间存在长期均衡关系;两组变量的动态脉冲响应为负,体现出城市化率和能源强度之间的反向变动走势;与城市化相比,能源强度的脉冲曲线波动剧烈,说明单纯依靠能源系统内部来改善能源效率缺乏可持续性;方差分解时序值显示,能源强度对城市化变动因素的累计贡献较低,而城市化水平对能源强度变动的影响显著且增长迅速,说明能源强度的降低并不是城市化率提高的主要动力,反之城市化水平的提高对能源强度的下降具有较强的促进作用。由此可见,通过城市的优化开发与系统建设,能够有效促进能源的可持续利用,实现能源消费与经济增长间的均衡发展。

Interactive Dynamic Response Between Urbanization and Energy Intensity of China

Based on statistics from 1990 to 2009,the Vector Auto-Regression model is established between urbanization rate and energy intensity.The paper analyzes and forecasts the relationship of interact dynamic response of two sets variables by using co-integration,impulse response function and dynamic variance decomposition analysis in order to reveal the inherent interaction mechanisms and trends between the level of urbanization and the energy efficiency.The result shows that there exists a long-term equilibrium between two variables;the dynamic response between urbanization rate and energy intensity is negative reflecting their reverse movement;compared with urbanization rate,the impulse response curve of energy intensity fluctuates violently,indicating that it lack of sustainability relies solely on energy system itself to improve energy efficiency;variance decomposition of timing values shows lower cumulative contribution of energy intensity to changes in urbanization rate while the influence on changes of energy intensity caused by urbanization rate is notable and grows rapidly,indicating that reduction in energy intensity is not the main driver of increase in urbanization while the increase of urbanization rate has more significant impact on the decline in energy intensity.Thus,with the optimization of city development and system construction,sustainable use of energy can be achieved as well as the balance between energy consumption and economic growth.