包容性增长测度及影响因素分析——基于经济可持续的视角

从经济增长的可持续性出发,测度出1998-2009年经济增长的可持续包容度,发现中国经济的包容度处于基本包容状态,具体而言,工业化中期形成的高投资、高消耗的增长模式使得能源消耗与环境污染压力日益严重,这些都阻碍了可持续包容度的提高。另一方面,国际金融危机的影响导致投资拉动型特征更加明显,再次使得可持续包容度呈现下降趋势。从区域差异来看,中国东部、中部、西部三大区域的可持续包容度依次递减。在此基础上构建动态面板数据,通过系统广义矩估计方法实证分析了可持续包容度的影响因素,结论表明从影响经济增长的可持续包容度的角度来看,更高的的研发投入水平和完善的基础设施有利于包容性增长的实现;能源使用效率的低下则阻碍了包容性增长;市场化程度与FDI对包容度的影响不明确;经济发展水平则与包容度之间具有显著的U型关系。由此,相应的政策建议是要提高可持续包容,可以加强研发投入力度,降低能源消耗,提高市场化程度,并根据各地区不同发展阶段采取不同的发展战略。

Inclusive Growth Measurement and Influencial Factors Analysis——Based on the Angle of Sustainability of Economic Growth

This paper measured the sustainable inclusiveness of economic growth from 1998 to 2009 from the perspective of the sustainability of economic growth.It can be obtained that Chinese economy was in the basic inclusive state.The increase pattern of high investment and consumption intensifies the pressure of energy and environment in the metaphase of industrialization,which blocks the sustainable inclusiveness.On the other hand,the international financial crisis makes obvious the features of investment pattern and decreases inclusiveness again.From the aspect of spatial variation,inclusiveness decreased progressively in those three regions: eastern region,central region and western region.And on that basis,we structured the Dynamic Panel Data Model and empirically analysed the influencial factors of inclusiveness through the method of system GMM.From the aspect of inclusiveness which influences the economic growth,it revealed that the improvement of R&D investment and infrastructure was beneficial to the realization of inclusive growth.The inefficiency of energy use impedes the growth of inclusiveness but the influence of market-oriented degree and FDI to inclusiveness is undefined.The relation between economic development level and inclusiveness is of the U type.Therefore,The corresponding policy suggestions are to enliance the intensity of R&D,decrease the consumption of energy,increase the market degree and make different development strategies according to development degree of every stage.