云南省15年生态足迹与承载力分析

定量测度可持续发展状态是可持续发展研究的热点。M．Wackemagel等提出并完善的生态足迹模型就是一种定量测量可持续状态的方法。该方法通过比较一定区域人类社会消费需求所需土地（生态足迹）与该区域可支持的生物生产性土地（生态承载力）来判断区域发展的可持续状态。以云南省为例。对1988至2003年生态足迹和生态承载力进行了计算分析。结果表明：15年来。云南省人均生态足迹快速增长，由1988年的0．8568hm^2增长到2003年的1．5845hm^2，年均增幅达4．2％；在人均承载力基本不变的情况下。由于人口增长和消费水平的快速提高，生态赤字持续扩大，从1988年的0．0465hm^2增加到2003年的0．6791hm^2，年增幅超过20％。

Ecological Footprint and Ecological Capacity Dynamic Analysis of Yunnan Province

Human life and all humans activities depend on nature.To achieve sustainable development,humans must maintain the requirement from nature within nature's carrying capacity.However,progress in using this concept to measure human development has been slow.Therefore,ecological footprint(EF) model has attracted much attention from scholars since it was developed in recent years.EF is a significant accounting tool for the overall assessment of the status of sustainable development,and a comprehensive indicator for human resources consumption.EF represent the human impact on nature,when EF surpasses the biological capacity,the region's development will be in an unsustainable state.This paper simply introduced the concept and calculation method of ecological footprint,and applied them to Yunnan province for the time period from 1988 to 2003.The result shows that ecological footprint per capita of Yunnan quickly increased from 0.8568 hm~2 in 1988 to 1.5845 hm~2 in 2003,and ecological deficit per capita increased sharply from 0.0465 hm~2 in 1990 to 0.6791 hm~2 by 2002.The increase of ecological footprint and deficit are mainly due to the rapid increase of human population and its consumption structure upgrade,while the cropland proportion of ecological footprint decreased from 36% in 1988 to 32% in 2003,the pastureland proportion of the ecological footprint grew from 14% in 1988 to 25% in 2003.The computetion result of this paper shows that human load has already stayed beyond Yunnan's ecological capacity,and the Yunnan's natural ecosystem is under great pressure of human activities.To achieve sustainable development,Yunnan must change its production and consumption model.