基于可靠性理论的区域大气环境质量风险评价模型探讨

为了用可靠性理论进行区域大气环境质量风险评价．从理论上研究了几个需要解决的基本问题。包括：明确区域环境质量风险评价的研究对象．确定区域环境质量可靠性的内涵,提出区域环境系统的“应力-强度-失效”假说．分析环境系统净化环节闻的串、并联关系。因此．从可靠性的视角,对区域环境质量的复杂性和不确定性进行新的探讨．构建环境科学与可靠性理论联系的桥梁。在理论分析的基础上．对福建省泉港区石化工业基地大气环境质量风险评价问题进行研究。从大气环境污染的主要问题出发。研究区域环境系统对大气污染物的净化环节及其串并联关系。在此基础上．构建区域大气环境污染的故障树,并以区域环境质量的可靠性作为评价指标对区域环境风险问题进行具体评价。这是一种以概率为基础的、新的区域环境质量风险评价模型．对于研究污染型工业系统的环境质量风险具有重要意义。

Study on a New Model of Regional Environmental Air Quality Risk Assessment Based on Reliability Theory

Firstly,the article researches on a few problems,which we must solve in order to apply reliability theory to regional environmental air quality risk assessment.These problems include ascertaining the objects of environmental quality risk assessment,making the concept of environmental quality reliability,presenting the hypothesis of "stress-strength-invalidation"and analyzing the series or the parallel connections between the purifying processes.Hence this article undertakes a new kind of study on the complexity and the uncertainty of the regional environmental quality from the point of view of reliability.This article establishes a bridge between the environmental science and the reliability theory.Furthermore,based on the theoretical statement,it studies the problem of regional environmental air quality risk assessment of Quangang District,Fujian Province.Beginning with the main problems on local air pollution,it analyzes the purifying processes in the regional environmental system and the series or parallel connections between them.Then,it sets up a fault tree of regional environmental pollution and puts forward a new math model of regional environmental air quality risk assessment adopting environmental quality reliability as the index.The new math model is based on probability and can make a difference on researching regional environmental quality risk of polluting industries.