晶硅光伏组件出口对中国碳排放的影响

基于文献资料,估算了2004-2009年中国晶硅光伏组件制造过程中的能源消耗和CO2排放强度。研究发现,2004-2009年,晶硅光伏组件制造过程中的能耗强度和CO2排放强度均逐年下降。2009年,单晶、多晶光伏组件制造过程中的能耗强度分别为2 629 kWh/kWp和2 242 kWh/kWp,碳排放强度分别为1 829 gCO2/Wp和1 559 gCO2/Wp。由于晶硅光伏组件的大量出口,中国不仅出口了大量的隐含碳,还损失了数量可观的、潜在的CO2减排能力。2004-2010年,中国的隐含碳净出口量由3万tCO2增加到852万tCO2;如果出口的晶硅电池全部用于国内,在其生命周期内累计可减排CO23.4亿t。除2004年和2010年外,国内安装的晶硅光伏组件在其生命周期内所能减少的CO2排放不足以抵消晶硅光伏行业的CO2排放,晶硅光伏行业对中国CO2减排的贡献为负。在多晶硅全部国产的情况下,中国若维持晶硅电池应用中的CO2减排量与全行业CO2排放量的平衡,至少应将晶硅组件制造的7.2%安装在国内使用。若多晶硅进口比例仍保持在50%左右,则至少应将晶硅组件制造的4.9%安装在国内使用。

Impacts of Crystalline Silicon Solar PV Module Exports on China’s Carbon Emission

This study examines the energy consumption and CO2 emissions of China’s crystalline silicon solar photovoltaic(c-Si PV) module manufacturing process from 2004 to 2009.Analysis based on available literature shows that the intensities of both energy consumption and CO2 emissions of module production gradually decreased year by year during this period.In 2009,energy consumptions of the manufacturing process of mono-crystalline and poly-crystalline silicon PV modules were2629 kWh/kWp and 2242 kWh/kWp,respectively;CO2 emissions were 1829g/Wp and 1559 g/Wp,respectively.China’s large export volume of PV modules brought about substantial embodied carbon export as well as a huge loss of potential CO2 emission reduction capability.China’s net export of embodied CO2 increased from 30,000 tons in 2004 to 8,520,000 tons in 2010.If all the exported c-Si cells were installed domestically,China would reduce a total of 340 million tons of CO2 emissions within the solar cells’ service life.Since carbon emissions avoided from China’s domestic c-Si PV installations in their full-life cycle could not offset the total emissions from module manufacturing process,the development of c-Si PV industry has barely contributed to China’s CO2 emissions reduction initiative.In order for avoid emissions through PV applications to balance CO2 emissions in the manufacturing process of the PV modules,a minimum of 7.2% of China’s c-Si solar PV modules needs to be installed domestically if all poly-crystalline silicon feedstock was produced domestically.A minimum of 4.9% of China’s c-Si solar PV modules needs to be installed domestically if the import rate of poly-crystalline silicon feedstock remains at 50%.