城市化与北京增温的协整分析

城市增温现象和城市热岛效应对人居环境的影响日益显著，而城市化是否是城市增温现象的一个主要影响因素，为此。利用协整分析等经济计量方法研究城市化对城市增温现象的影响。协整分析是近年来计量经济学发展的最新成果，能够揭示变量之间存在着的长期均衡变动关系。分析发现，城市化因子与城市气候因子之间存在着协整关系。长期看北京市的年平均最低温度与人口密度基本上处于同步增长状态；短期内城市气温的变动受人口和城市化因素的影响较大。为此可知，北京市70年代以来，城市气温的升高基本上与城市化的发展相一致。二者具有长期协同变动的均衡关系。这些发现对我们制定减缓城市热岛效应的城市规划以及合理人口规模的城市发展战略都有很大的帮助。

Co-Integration Analysis of Urbanization and Urban Warming in Beijing

Urban warming and urban heat island have more and more effects on human settlements.In order to find the contributing factors of urban warming,the paper uses econometric methods to testify the distinct effects of urbanization on urban warming and urban heat island.Co-integration is the most important development in the field of econometrics.The relation of co-integration between two and more variables can bear out the in-phase trend for them to modulate together in the long run.The analysis tells us that there are several couples' variables with the co-integration relation.For example,we find the co-integration of annual minimum temperatures and population density.The model results tell us that with one percent increase of population density of Beijing city,there will be a 1.005 percent increase in annual minimum temperature.Still,we also find the other co-integration relations between climate factors and socioeconomic factors.That is to say,during the recent 30 years,the urban warming trend has the co-integration trend with Beijing's increasing urbanization trends.As we know,modern life style and mass production always make the world full of wealth as cause well as many ecological crisis;urban heat island and global climate change are some of the results.In the movement of green life and ecological city,more and more people have realized the importance of environmental amenities to the quality of their life.Many governments in close-packed cities have also begun to deal with urban disamenities such as UHI,traffic jams and air pollution.Our study and results will help for urban planning and urban management when controlling overpopulation in Chinese mega cities.The methods are brought into effect energy-saving strategies for urban sustainable development,increasing the green coverage rate of Beijing city,controlling the urban sprawl with a rational building capacity,achieving a public-traffic-oriented planning for urban transit system,as well as a sustainable life style for creating a green city,and so on.