陕西渭南地区土地生产潜力及其人口承载量

本文以多年大量的资源考察、经济统计资料为依据,运用系统动力学方法,通过建立包括土地资源、水资源和种植业、畜牧业、渔业等为主的土地生产潜力模型及人口发展预测模型,对未来40年渭南地区不同投入状况下土地生产潜力及其不同消费水平下的人口承载量,作了趋势性定量分析和预测,并得出渭南地区具有较大的土地潜在人口支持能力的基本结论。

THE POTENTIAL PRODUCTIVE CAPACITY AND POPULATION CARRYING CAPACITY OF LAND IN WEINAN DISTRICT OF SHANNXI PROVINCE

On the basis of the material of resources investigation and economic statisticsover the years, through using the method of system dynamics and setting up the models ofpotential productive capacity of land and population development forecast, in which cultiva-tion subsystem, livestock subsystem, fish subsystem are covered, quantitative analysis andforecast of potential productive capacity of land on the conditions of different inputs and thepopulation carrying capacity on the conditions of different consumption levels in forty yearsin the future are given. With it, a basic conclusion has been drawn that Weinan district hasgreater potential capacity and population carrying capacity of land.