中国高铁建设投资对国民经济和环境的短期效应综合评估

近年来,传统铁路发展远不能满足各行业对综合交通运输体系的需求,中国政府正加大对高铁行业的规划与投资。现有高铁网络与其他铁路共同构成的快速客运网,推动了产业的空间布局,加速了产业结构调整,提高了就业率,提升了区域间劳动力、资本、自然资源等配置效率,促进了区域经济协调发展。在中国政府大力建设高铁网络的当下,综合评估中国高铁建设投资给国民经济和环境带来的影响具有必要性和十分重要的现实意义。本文基于中国2012年投入产出表,利用投入产出技术和计量经济学模型,通过重新刻画投入产出模型中农村居民、城镇居民部门"收入-消费"内生关系,区分高铁与传统铁路在生产结构和投资结构的差异,构建基于居民消费局部内生化的高铁投资投入产出局部闭模型,评估中国高铁建设投资对经济、就业和能源环境的短期效应。结果表明:12012年中国高铁投资每亿元拉动总产出增加3.72亿元,GDP增长1.21亿元,投资总量给国民经济共带来总产出增长19 373.44亿元、GDP增长6 296.04亿元;2在拉动经济增长同时,高铁建设投资对就业拉动显著,每亿元高铁投资创造1 084个就业岗位,2012年因高铁投资新增就业岗位高达565.23万人。这意味着,在短期内,中国高铁建设投资会在发展社会经济、促进居民就业等方面注入强大的动力;3在环境层面,2012年高铁前期基础建设共带来83.42 Mt CO2排放,略大于传统铁路投资,但考虑到建成运营后,高铁具有清洁、稳定、高速等特点,高铁建设投资在环境层面优势会慢慢显现。

Environmental impact and economic assessment of Chinese high speed rail investments

The development of traditional railway can't satisfy the need of integrated transportation system for other industries,so Chinese government is expanding the high speed rail investment and programme in recent years.Combining with traditional railway, high speed rail becomes the rapid transportation network which can promote the industrial spatial distribution, accelerate industrial structure adjustment, increase the employment rate, enhance the regional allocation efficiency of labor, capital and natural resources, and harmonize development of national economy.Since Chinese government is developing high speed rail, it is important to comprehensively evaluate the influence of high speed rail's construction investment on national economy and environment.Based on the China input-output table in 2012, this paper built a high speed rail investment partially closed input-output model by using input-output technique and econometric theory which discussed the endogenous relation of 'income-consumption' of rural residents and urban reflected and residented the differences of production structure and investment structure between high speed rail and traditional railway.Meanwhile, this model can evaluate the short-term effect of high speed rail's construction investment on Chinese economy, employment, energy and environment.Results showed that: ①Every 100 million yuan on Chinese high speed rail's construction investment increased the total output 372 million yuan and GDP 121 million yuan, and gross investment increased the total output 1 937.34 billion yuan and GDP 629.60 billion yuan in 2012.② At the same time, Chinese high speed rail's construction investment also promoted the employment.Every 100 million yuan on Chinese high speed rail's construction investment added 1 084 jobs, and created 5.65 million jobs in total in 2012.It means that Chinese high speed rail's construction infuses the powerful driving force into developing economy and promoting employment.③In the environmental aspect, the early construction of high speed rail's infrastructure caused 83.42 million tons of CO2 emissions in 2012, slightly larger than investment in traditional railway.However, because of its characteristics of being clean, stable, fast, environmental advantages of high-speed rail will slowly emerge.