“一带一路”国家天然气投资绩效评价及其改进路径

运用超效率数据包络分析(SE-DEA)方法,综合考虑目标国资源现状、政治因素、经济技术、社会条件、市场体制和国际合作情况,构建天然气投资绩效评价线性规划模型,并以2003—2013年中国对"一带一路"国家的天然气投资绩效均值进行聚类,结合规模报酬和投入要素的影子价格分析,提出目标国天然气投资绩效改进路径。结果显示:(1)中国对中亚及北亚、东南亚和南亚的天然气投资普遍处于中高效区,对独联体、中东欧洲和西亚北非地区的天然气投资普遍处于中低效区。(2)高效区国家自2012年起投资绩效处于规模报酬不变阶段,技术水平和国家经济对天然气贸易的依赖程度是影响投资绩效的关键因素。(3)中效区国家投资绩效大多处于规模报酬递增阶段,从2013年起总储量、人文地理和与中国油气合作状况成为影响中效区投资绩效的关键因素。(4)低效区国家投资绩效处于规模报酬递增阶段,国家经济对天然气贸易的依赖程度和技术水平要素是影响低效区投资绩效的关键因素;此外,对于处于低效区的中亚国家资源现状是影响投资绩效的另一关键因素,政治因素则是中东欧洲和独联体国家的关键因素,东南亚和南亚地区的投资关键因素则包含社会条件。这意味着,中国要提高在"一带一路"区域的天然气投资绩效,就要针对不同地区投资现状制定改进策略。对于高效区和低效区的中亚国家,未来中国要加强同目标国政府间的沟通,达成"以技术换气条款";对中效区和低效区的中东欧洲、独联体国家可采用与油气企业合作方式降低合作风险;对低效区的东南亚和南亚国家,可签订天然气长期贸易合同。

Evaluation and improvement of natural gas investment performance in the Belt and Road countries

In this paper, the Super-Efficiency Data Envelopment Analysis method (SE-DEA) was employed to construct a linear programming model for natural gas investment performance based on factors including resource status, political factors, economic technology, social conditions, market system and international cooperation.At the meantime, using the mean value of natural gas investment from 2003 to 2013 to cluster countries along the Belt and Road, and combined with scale of returns and the dual price analysis of input factors, the paper puts forward the improvement path of natural gas investment performance in the target countries.The results show that: ① China's natural gas investment in Central Asia and North Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia are generally in the middle or high efficiency zones;however, target countries in the CIS, Middle East Europe and West Asia and North Africa are in low efficiency areas.② The scale of returns in high-efficient countries, since 2012, has been in constant stage, therefore the key factors influencing investment performance are technical level of those countries and their economic dependence on natural gas trade degree.③ Most of countries in mid-efficient zones are in the stage of scale increasing returns.The reserves, the condition of human geography and oil and gas cooperation with China have become key factors that influence the performance of investment since 2013.④ Inefficient countries are seeing increasing return stage driven by the expansion of investment scale.The national economic dependence on natural gas trade level and technical level are key factors that affect the performance of inefficient zone investment.In countries of inefficient area of central Asia, another key factor influences the performance of investment is resource status.The political factor is the key factor for the Middle East Europe and the CIS countries.Meanwhile, social condition is the factor influences Southeast Asia and South Asia natural gas investment, which means that present investment strategy should be adjusted to different investment circumstances if China wants to see improvement in investment performance of natural gas along the Belt and Road.For efficient area and inefficient area of central Asia, China needs to reinforce the communication with the local governments, aiming at achieving 'Barter technology for gas'.In mid-efficient zone, inefficient area of Middle East Europe and CIS countries, cooperation with target countries' oil and gas enterprises can be achieved to reduce the risk.The corporation between China and Southeast Asia or South Asia countries which are inefficient zones can be long-term gas trade contracts.