技术进步路径选择与中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度

本文采用考虑反馈性出口隐含碳的MRIO模型,测算了2000—2011年中国14个制造业行业出口隐含碳排放强度;在此基础上,基于全球价值链(GVC)分工地位的视角,理论分析并实证检验了不同技术进步路径对中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度的影响。研究发现:中间品进口、自主研发、模仿创新显著降低了中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度,而国外技术引进和外商直接投资(FDI)对中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度的影响不显著;提升中国制造业在GVC中的国际分工地位能够显著降低其出口隐含碳排放强度。进一步研究发现,不同技术进步路径对中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度的作用效果受到制造业在GVC中的国际分工地位的影响,并表现出明显的门槛特征,即只有中国制造业在GVC中的分工地位越过门槛值后,技术进步路径才能显著降低中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度。此外,将制造业分为知识密集型、资本密集型和劳动密集型三类,发现不同技术进步路径对中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度还存在着显著的行业差异。因此,中国制造业应充分发挥中间品进口、自主研发、模仿创新在降低中国制造业出口隐含碳排放强度中的作用,在引进FDI和国外技术的过程中,优先考虑引进发达国家的先进低碳制造技术和清洁生产技术。同时,中国制造业还应积极培育自身竞争优势,构建自我主导的国内价值链和区域价值链体系,主动嵌入全球创新链,提升中国制造业在GVC中的国际分工地位。此外,政府应根据技术创新和引进政策在不同制造业行业中的执行效果,有所侧重地制定和实施相关政策。

Study on impacts of technological progress paths on embodied carbon emission intensity of Chinese manufacturing exports

This paper measures the embodied carbon emission intensity (ECEI) of 14 sectors of manufacturing exports in China in the period of 2000-2011 by applying MRIO model that takes into account of the feedback effects.It further examines the impacts of different technological progress paths on the ECEI of Chinese manufacturing exports from the perspective of the division status in global value chains (GVC) both theoretically and empirically.The results indicate that major factors that significantly reduce the ECEI of Chinese manufacturing exports are intermediate input imports,R&D and the imitation innovation,but factors including foreign technology imports and FDI can hardly take effects.Therefore,improving the international division status of Chinese manufacturing in GVC can sharply reduce the ECEI of Chinese manufacturing exports.To scrutinize further,we find that the effects that technological progress paths have on the ECEI of Chinese manufacturing exports are influenced by the division status of Chinese manufacturing in GVC,which presents evident threshold characteristics.Specifically,only when the division status goes beyond the threshold value,can technological progress paths have a negative effect on the ECEI.Moreover,these effects show great industry heterogeneity if we classify manufacturing industries into three categories:knowledge-intensive,capital-intensive and labor-intensive.Accordingly,we propose some suggestions of reducing the ECEI of Chinese manufacturing exports.First,we should give full play to intermediate input imports,R&D and the imitation innovation in the role of reducing the ECEI,and introduce preferentially advanced low carbon emission and cleaner production technologies from developed countries in the process of introducing FDI and foreign technologies.At the same time,we should enhance the competitive advantages by establishing positively national and regional value chains managed by China,joining actively in global innovation chains,and finally improving the division status of Chinese manufacturing in GVC.Last but not least,the government should implement the technological innovation and introduction policies disparately to various industries given the differences of policy performing effects on them.