中国农村居民煤炭消费及影响因素研究

农村居民煤炭消费牵涉到农村居民生活方式与能源转型、北方供暖清洁化改革、大气污染治理等重大改革实践,如何准确理解和研判现有的农村居民煤炭消费现状,并进而识别出科学、有效的减煤措施,已成为改善农村居民能源结构、治理农村地区煤炭消费、改善北方地区大气质量的重要手段之一。然而,现有对农村居民煤炭消费的统计数据可能存在一定低估,基础性数据的匮乏与不足严重阻碍了科学研究和公共决策。为了准确了解我国农村居民煤炭消费的现状、特征与空间分布,本文采用第三次中国家庭能源消费调查数据对农村居民的煤炭消费进行了核算,并针对户均煤炭消费量和地区农村居民煤炭消费总量进行了比较,在此基础上还考察了气候差异、资源禀赋、收入水平等因素对农村居民煤炭需求的影响。研究结果表明,2014年中国农村居民生活用煤炭消费总量为6 585.7万tce,平均每户煤炭消费量为347.2 kgce,其中供暖用煤占比96.9%,烹饪用煤占比3.1%。各省的户均煤炭消费和煤炭消费总量呈现显著的空间差异,其中:东北、西部地区农村居民户均煤炭消费量显著高于其他地区,北京及周边的河北、山东、山西、内蒙、辽宁和天津7个省、市的农村居民共消费了全国55%的农村生活用煤,其中北京周边的河北、山东和山西三省农村居民消费了全国46.6%的农村煤炭消费。地区煤炭资源禀赋、农村居民住房面积与供暖用煤需求显著正相关,而冬季户外温度、居民收入水平同煤炭需求之间关系不显著。未来政府应通过改善农村居民民生需求、推动农村能源转型、提高农村能源统计水平等途径来有效治理农村散煤消费。

Residential coal consumption and its determinants in rural China

Reducing the use of coal in rural China is a key measure to foster the energy transition in rural area and improve the air quality.To control coal consumption,it is necessary to understand the pattern of present coal consumption of rural households and identify the effectiveness measures.However,the official statistics may underestimate the coal consumption,especially for rural residential sector.The lack of accurate statistical data on rural household coal consumption has heavily hindered scientific research and the design of public policy.The major purpose of this study is to estimate the coal consumption of rural household and examine its determinants.We first used the data of the Chinese Residential Energy Consumption Survey in 2014,which systematically collected the detailed information of energy usage at the device level.Our result showed that,the coal demand of rural household was 65.857 Mtce in 2014,with average coal consumption of 347.2 kgee per household.Around 96.9％ of coal was used for space heating purpose and the coal for cooking accounted for 3.1％.Comparison of coal consumption per household and aggregated coal consumption by province showed great spatial heterogeneity.Among various regions,the rural household in China's northeastern and western regions consumed more coal than their counterparty in middle and eastern regions.Our result also showed that,seven northern provinces (Hebei,Shandong,Shandong,Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Liaoning,Tianjin and Beijing) accounted for 55％ of the total rural residential coal consumption.More important,three provinces surrounding Beijing (Hebei,Shandong and Shanxi) contributed 46.6％ of national rural coal consumption,which may greatly aggravate the air pollution condition in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.Moreover,a regression analysis suggested that the local coal production and dwelling area was significantly and positively correlated with space heating energy consumption,while the outdoor temperature in winter and household income were not significant.In order to control the rural household coal consumption,more attention should be paid by improving rural living standard,boosting the energy transition in rural area and establishing rural energy statistical system.