特朗普“去气候化”政策对全球气候治理的影响

美国特朗普政府宣布退出《巴黎协定》是当前全球气候治理中最受舆论关注的问题,对事态发展趋势的判断和事件影响的评估是最为亟需的。本文系统分析了特朗普政府上任后推行的一系列"去气候化"政策,以及其退出《巴黎协定》的主要动因和可能形式,同时量化评估了这些内政外交的"倒退"对美国实施国家自主贡献目标以及全球气候治理格局的实质影响,并据此提出了中国应对全球气候治理新形势变化的对策和建议。研究表明,特朗普政府"美国优先"的能源政策根植于复兴制造业和加大基础设施投资的经济利益动机,随着特朗普"去气候化"进程持续发酵,诸多气候政策面临存续风险,美国实施国家自主贡献将面临严峻挑战,"倒行政策"将有可能使美国温室气体排放出现反弹。如果不考虑中、高危气候政策,美国2025年温室气体排放也仅能相对2005年下降11.0%—14.9%,距离下降26%—28%的国家自主贡献目标相去甚远。同时,特朗普政府拒绝继续履行向发展中国家提供气候资金支持的义务,将有可能导致绿色气候基金拖欠资金总额上升117%,并进一步挫伤全球低碳投资的信心。没有美国的全球气候治理3.0时代将呈现出新的复杂特征,并不可避免地造成减排、资金和领导力缺口的持续扩大,也不排除后续会出现消极的跟随者,整体进程将可能进入一个低潮周期。虽然国际社会对中国引领全球气候治理充满期待,但中国仍应审慎对待,长远谋划应对气候变化的内政外交战略,而不应将"气候举旗"看作是一蹴而就的短期策略,对各种要求中国发挥"领导作用"的说法保持清醒头脑。在今后气候谈判中,美国仍有较大可能会二次"要价",中国作为排放大国的压力依然不容小觑,中美气候关系需要再定位。

The impact of Trump's ‘Undo Climate Policies’ on global climate governance

Trump Administration's withdraw from the Paris Agreement has become the most concerned issue in global climate governance worldwide currently,thus it is necessary and urgent to make prudent and objective judgement and assessment on the future potential development trends and impact of this issue.This article systematically analyzes the series of ‘ undo’ climate policies announced or implemented by the Trump Administration,and its main motivations and possible ways of withdraw from the Paris Agreement.Meanwhile,this article assesses the quantitative effects of these ‘retrogression’ in domestic and international policies on the achievement of US' s national determined contribution and substantial impact on the global climate governance pattern,and accordingly puts forward suggestions on China's response to the new situation changes in global climate regime.The study shows that the ‘ American first’ energy policy of the Trump administration is originated from the economic incentives of revival of manufacturing and increasing infrastructure investment.As the Trump ‘ Undo’ climate policies proceeds,a lot of Obama climate policies may be at risk,US's future greenhouse gas emissions may increase again and it will make US difficult in achieving its nationally determined contribution.Without consideration of highly and moderately vulnerable climate polices,US' s 2025 emissions may roughly 11.0％-14.9％ below 2005 level,which is far from the 26％-28％ nationally determined contribution target.At the same time,the Trump Administration's refusal to continue to fulfill the obligation to provide climate financial support to developing countries,will likely lead to a 117％ increase of GCF debt fund,and further dampen the global confidence in low-carbon investments.The global climate governance 3.0 era without US will show some new and complex features,and will inevitably lead to the continuing widen of mitigation,finance and leadership gaps.The possibility of negative followers cannot be excluded neither and the whole process will likely fall into a low period of cycle.Although the international community is full of expectations for China to take lead in global climate governance in the future,China should remain cautious and determine its strategy in addressing climate through long-term plans.China shall now treat ‘flagging’ as a short term strategy,otherwise should stay sober-minded to the arguments that asking China to play a ‘leading role’.In the future climate negotiations,US may still search for renegotiation with high probability.As a major emitter,the pressure China may face shall never be underestimated,and there is a need to reposition the China-US climate relationship.