配额免费分配法下市场结构对碳交易市场运行效率的影响

在产品市场和碳交易市场均为完全竞争的市场结构中,碳交易机制是一种有效的环境政策,但在现实环境下,产品市场和碳交易市场往往都是不完全竞争的。本文采用复杂适应系统仿真的方法,构建基于SWARM的碳交易市场仿真模型,建立碳排放权交易市场仿真系统,研究产品市场和碳交易市场结构对碳交易市场的运行效率的综合影响,同时为了降低产品市场垄断企业对碳交易市场运行效率的影响,本文通过增加碳交易市场配额缺口和增加参与交易的中小控排企业数量两种方式,探寻如何在产品市场不完全竞争的环境中设计合适碳交易机制。研究发现:1产品市场垄断会导致碳交易市场流动性不稳定,出现波动聚集等现象。2在产品市场处于相同结构时,碳交易市场垄断会导致成交量和成交额减少,流动性降低。3不同市场结构对碳交易市场的价格波动没有显著影响。4产品市场的市场结构会影响碳交易市场运行的有效性,完全竞争的产品市场下,碳交易市场的收益波动符合随机游走,而垄断力会改变这一特征。5市场流动性随着碳配额缺口的扩大发生显著变化,成交量和成交额随之显著增加,在产品市场垄断的市场结构中,通过加紧配额供给,可以增加碳交易市场的流动性,改变碳交易市场低迷的交易状况。6鼓励小企业参与市场交易对碳交易市场的流动性没有产生显著影响,但会在一定程度上降低垄断企业在碳交易市场上的支配力,从而改善碳交易市场的有效性。

Study on the effect of market structure on carbon emission trading market performance under free carbon emission allowances

Carbon trading mechanism is an effective environmental policy when both product market and carbon emission trading (CET) market are under the perfectly competitive conditions.However, neither of these two markets tend to achieve perfect competition in current realistic situation.Using complex adaptive system and simulation method, a model of CET market is built based on the SWARM to emulate the real market, which is aimed to study the relationships between CET market and the structure of product and CET market from a comprehensive point of view.Meanwhile, in order to weaken the negative effects of product market monopoly on the efficiency of CET market, two methods are used to explore the valid carbon trading mechanism in imperfect competition market condition.One is increasing the gaps between carbon quota supply and demand, and the other is increasing the number of small and medium sized Companies involved.It is found that: ①Monopoly in product market leads to the lack of liquidity and clustering of volatility in CET market.②Monopoly in CET market would bring less volume and turnover, i.e.lower liquidity, when the product market conditions remains unchanged.③Market structures have no significant influence on the price of CET market.④The structure of product market will affect the effectiveness of CET market, the earnings fluctuation of carbon market is in accord with random walk process in perfectly competitive market, while things are different in monopoly market.⑤The market liquidity will improve notably along with the increasing gap between quota supply and demand, which shows the volume and turnover increase correspondingly.In the monopolistic product market, the limited quota supply may improve the liquidity in CET market and promote the volume of transactions.⑥It has no significant effect on the liquidity of carbon market to encourage the small business involved.But it's helpful to reduce the control power of the monopolies and improve the market efficiency.The results of this study provide beneficial reference for the establishment of united national carbon trading market in China.