碳交易背景下中国石化行业2020年碳减排目标情景分析

石化行业作为中国八大典型高碳排放产业之一,也是碳市场参与的重要行业.在国家2020年碳排放强度目标的约束下,客观评价其行业减碳的压力,对于政府部门科学制定各个行业碳排放配额的分配方案具有重要支撑作用.同时,亦对于通过低碳转型升级实现行业的可持续发展和支撑国家的工业减排目标具有理论和现实意义.本文针对石化行业9个子部门,结合我国经济发展的总体背景和趋势以及石化行业的相关数据,以2010年为基准情景,在2020年国家碳排放强度分别下降45％和50％的减排约束目标下,构建了一个动态CGE模型——PCCGE,借助GAMS软件模拟分析,预测了到2020年国家和石化行业经济总量、能源消费结构和碳排放量及碳强度等的变化趋势.研究结果表明,相比基准情景,在45％、50％的碳强度减排目标下,国家和石化行业的经济增长、能源消费结构和碳排放强度等指标分别受到一定程度影响,其中,50％的减排目标对国家整体经济增速影响更为明显;对煤炭、石油这两种高碳能源的需求产生了较显著的约束效应;相比国家45％-50％的低碳发展目标,石化行业减碳承受压力达到60.63％至64.78％,面临着艰巨的减排任务与挑战.最后,文章结合低碳市场化背景提出了如下建议:科学预测典型离碳行业的减碳潜力,谨慎应对石化等行业企业参与碳市场交易过程中碳配额指标的制定与分配;充分利用技术创新和能源结构调整等战略,提高可再生能源的使用规模,促进能源消耗结构的优化和调整;构建石化行业节能低碳技术产学研协同创新体系,解决共性节能技术瓶颈;实施石化行业企业低碳发展战略,建设完善碳排放管理体系是行业节能减碳的重要手段.

Scenario analysis of carbon emission reduction target on China's petrochemical industry in 2020 under carbon trading background based on PCCGE model

As one of the Chinese eight-typical high carbon emission industries,petrochemical industry also plays an important role in carbon market.Under the constraints of carbon emission intensity target by 2020,an objective evaluation which made from the pressure of the carbon emission has important supporting function for the government departments to formulate the carbon emission quota allocation scheme in different industries.Meanwhile,it has theoretical and practical significance for achieving sustainable development and supporting industrial emission reduction targets in China by low-carbon transformation and upgrading.This article aims at nine subsidiary departments of petrochemical industry,combine with the general background、the trend of Chinese economic development and related data of the petrochemical industry,base on 2010 year,under the emission restriction target of the national carbon emission intensity decreased by 45％ and 50％ respectively by 2020,a dynamic CGE model which called PCCGE is constructed,meanwhile,GAMS software shows the trends of total economic output,energy consumption structure,carbon emission and carbon intensity from national and petrochemical industry by 2020.The results show that compared to benchmark cases,total economic output,energy consumption structure,carbon emission and carbon intensity from national and petrochemical industry have been affected,especially 50％ of emission reduction targets obviously affect the speed of national economic growth;and the demand for two high carbon energy sources,coal and oil,has been significantly restrained.Compare with national 45％-50％'s low-carbon development goals,petrochemical industry goals to finish 60.63％-64.78％,which means that they have to face formidable emission reduction tasks and challenges.Finally,base on the background of low carbon market,this article gives the following suggestions:firstly,predicting the carbon reduction potential in the typical high carbon industry scientifically,and carefully deal with the petrochemical industry and other enterprises to participate in the carbon market trading process of carbon quota formulation and distribution;secondly,making full use of technological innovation and energy structure adjustment strategy,increasing the scale of renewable energy use,promoting the optimization and adjustment of energy consumption structure;thirdly,structuring a synergistic、resource sharing and innovative system low-carbon technology in petrochemical industry,solving common energy saving technology bottleneck;finally,implementing lowcarbon development strategy of petrochemical enterprises and building and improving carbon emission management system are important means of energy saving and emission reduction.