中国“十三五”时期省际碳减排目标的效率分配

首先,将"零和收益"的博弈思想引入到SBM模型中,构建了基于零和收益的碳减排SBM效率分配模型(ZSG-SBM)。然后,基于"十三五"规划中我国整体碳强度降低18%的减排约束,从经济增速和能源消费结构2个维度设置了"十三五"期间我国经济系统的4种发展情景,应用上述ZSG-SBM模型对碳减排目标进行了省际层面的效率分配。并通过对比各省经济发展现状和碳减排目标的分配结果,分析了各省的低碳经济发展路径。结果表明:采用ZSG-SBM模型对碳排放量进行效率分配后,30个省份的投入、产出指标实现了有效配置,碳排放效率到达效率前沿。政府基于"公平"导向的行政分配方案会造成一定程度的效率损失,基于ZSG-SBM模型的效率分配方案更符合低碳经济的长远发展要求。在碳强度约束的基础上,能源强度的再约束将迫使各省优化能源消费结构,从而提升我国整体碳排放效率。"十三五"时期,我国有16个省份的碳减排目标分配结果大于18%的平均标准,各省应根据自身资源禀赋、经济水平、产业结构和能源消费结构的现状选择差异的低碳经济发展道路。

Efficiency allocation of provincial carbon reduction target in China's Thirteenth Five Year Plan period

Firstly,we established the ZSG-SBM model through introducing the'zero sum gains' game theory into the SBM model.Then,we set up 4 development scenarios for the China's economic system in Thirteenth Five Year Plan period through two dimensions as economic growth and energy consumption structure,and made the efficient allocation in provincial level of carbon reduction target by using the above ZSG-SBM model based on the China's overall carbon reduction constraint (18％) what set in Thirteenth Five Year Plan period.Finally,we analyzed the provincial development pattern of low-carbon economy by comparing the economic development status and the allocated result of carbon reduction target.Results show that:After the efficiency allocation of carbon emission by using the ZSG-SBM model,the input and output indicators of the 30 provinces realized the effective allocation,and the carbon emission efficiency reached the efficiency frontier.The administrative allocation scheme from government based on equity-oriented would cause efficiency loss in a certain degree,and the efficiency allocation scheme based on the ZSG-SBM model more met the long-term developed requirement of low-carbon economy.On the basis of carbon intensity constraint,the re-constraint of energy intensity would force the provinces to optimize their energy consumption structure,thereby enhancing the overall carbon emission efficiency of China.Allocation results of carbon reduction target in 16 province were greater than China's average standard (18％) in Thirteenth Five Year Plan period,all the provinces should choose appropriate development pattern of low-carbon economy according to the status of their resource endowment,economic level,industrial structure and energy consumption structure,and also on.